Overnight Policy Rate in Malaysia
The Overnight Policy Rate ended 2022 at 2.75%, up in line with the 1.75% end-2021 value and down in line with the reading of 3.00% a decade earlier. For reference, the average policy rate in the Asia-Pacific was 3.70% at the end of 2022. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.
Malaysia Interest Rate Chart
Malaysia Interest Rate Data
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Overnight Policy Rate (%, eop) | 3.25 | 3.00 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 2.75 |
3-Month KLIBOR (%, eop) | 3.69 | 3.35 | 1.94 | 2.05 | 3.68 |
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) | 4.08 | 3.35 | 2.69 | 3.58 | 4.10 |
Bank Negara Malaysia holds again in January
At its 23–24 January meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left the overnight policy rate (OPR) unchanged at 3.00%, following its hold in November. The decision met market expectations.
The BNM deemed that within-target inflation and a resilient economy, supported by robust domestic demand and a strong labor market, justified the hold. In addition, the Bank expects inflation to remain muted and growth to improve from 2023’s projection in 2024 as exports recover and domestic spending remains upbeat. Meanwhile, the BNM noted that recent depreciatory pressures on the ringgit had stemmed from exogenous factors, which did not warrant changes to the policy rate.
The BNM did not provide explicit forward guidance but reiterated that it would “ensure that the monetary policy stance remains conducive to sustainable economic growth amid price stability”. Our panel expects the Bank to maintain the OPR at current levels in 2024. However, potential changes to price controls and subsidies this year could reignite price pressures, posing an upside risk to the OPR. The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 6–7 March.
UOB analysts Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting expect no changes to the OPR in 2024: “The latest neutral [monetary policy statement] and macro landscape reinforce our view of a prolonged interest rate pause by BNM at 3.00% throughout the year. Our OPR call is also backed by in-house assumptions of a soft landing in the global economy, Fed rate cuts starting mid-2024 and gradual subsidy rationalization by the Unity government. Moreover, the continuation of steady OPR will help to narrow the negative gap with US interest rates and support the [ringgit] recovery by year-end.” Goldman Sachs analysts also forecast an extended pause this year: “Going forward, we continue to expect BNM to keep the OPR rate unchanged at 3.0% through end-2024. A more aggressive subsidy rationalization than we currently expect is an upside risk to our headline inflation and BNM policy rate forecasts in 2024.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Malaysian interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 25 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Malaysian interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Malaysian interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Malaysian interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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