Skyline of Florence, Italy

Italy GDP

Italy GDP

Economic Growth in Italy

Italy's GDP growth from 2013-2022 was sluggish, reflecting structural economic weaknesses such as dire demographics, low productivity growth, a sclerotic bureaucracy and political uncertainty. The country faced persistent challenges, including high public debt and low productivity growth. The economy contracted sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic, exacerbating pre-existing issues. Recovery in 2021-2022 was supported by EU recovery funds but long-term growth prospects remained constrained by structural barriers and the need for deeper economic reforms.

Italy's economy recorded an average real GDP growth rate of 0.6% in the decade leading to 2022, below the 1.4% average for the Euro Area. In 2022, real GDP growth was 3.9%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.

Italy GDP Chart

Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Italy from 2022 to 2021.
Source: ISTAT.

Italy GDP Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 0.8 0.5 -9.0 8.3 4.1
GDP (EUR bn) 1,771 1,796 1,660 1,820 1,963
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 1.9 1.4 -7.6 9.6 7.9

Growth accelerates in Q1

GDP expanded 0.3% in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms in Q1 2024 from the previous quarter, accelerating from Q4 2023’s 0.1% uptick and beating market expectations. Compared with Q1 2023, GDP increased 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted annual basis in Q1, following the 0.7% rise recorded in the previous quarter.

Looking at the breakdown of the quarter-on-quarter growth figure by expenditure, the statistical office said that domestic demand including inventories detracted from the final reading, while external demand made a positive contribution. Sector-wise, the primary sector, secondary and tertiary sectors all expanded. A more detailed breakdown will be made available on 1 June.

This year, GDP should expand at an underwhelming pace. Industrial production should rebound, underpinned by stronger foreign demand, and EU funds disbursement should support activity. However, waning savings and still-high interest rates will restrain growth. A heavy public debt and rising debt-servicing costs, coupled with a possible reignition of financial turbulence, pose downside risks to the outlook. Pro-market policies from the center-right government pose upside risks.

Commenting on the outlook, EIU analysts stated: “[In 2024 ] economic activity will be held back by interest rates in the euro zone remaining at a record high until at least June 2024 and a subdued external environment. Nonetheless, easing inflationary pressures and a rebound in real wages should underpin a modest expansion in private consumption.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Italian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 49 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Italian GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Italian GDP projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Italian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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