Skyline of Florence, Italy

Italy GDP

Italy GDP

Economic Growth in Italy

Italy's GDP growth from 2013-2022 was sluggish, reflecting structural economic weaknesses such as dire demographics, low productivity growth, a sclerotic bureaucracy and political uncertainty. The country faced persistent challenges, including high public debt and low productivity growth. The economy contracted sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic, exacerbating pre-existing issues. Recovery in 2021-2022 was supported by EU recovery funds but long-term growth prospects remained constrained by structural barriers and the need for deeper economic reforms.

Italy's economy recorded an average real GDP growth rate of 0.6% in the decade leading to 2022, below the 1.4% average for the Euro Area. In 2022, real GDP growth was 3.9%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.

Italy GDP Chart

Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Italy from 2013 to 2022.
Source: ISTAT.

Italy GDP Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 0.8 0.5 -9.0 8.3 3.9
GDP (EUR bn) 1,771 1,796 1,660 1,820 1,947
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 1.9 1.4 -7.6 9.7 7.0

Economy stagnates in Q3

GDP remained unchanged in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms in Q3 from the previous quarter, following Q2’s 0.4% contraction. Compared with Q3 2022, GDP was also unchanged on a seasonally adjusted annual basis in Q3, following the 0.3% rise recorded in the previous quarter.

The quarterly downturn came amid sticky inflation and rising interest rates. Looking at the breakdown of the quarter-on-quarter growth figure by expenditure, the statistical office said that domestic demand gross of inventories detracted from the final reading, while external demand made a positive contribution. Sector-wise, the primary sector contracted, the tertiary sector recorded no growth, and the secondary sector expanded. A more detailed breakdown will be available on 1 December.

The economy should record tepid growth in the fourth quarter of 2023, restrained by depleted savings, sticky inflation and tighter financing conditions. Next year, GDP should expand at a modest pace. Industrial production should rebound, underpinned by stronger foreign demand—especially from Germany. That said, waning savings and still-high interest rates will restrain growth. EU funds disbursement should support activity, however. A heavy public debt and rising debt-servicing costs, coupled with a possible reignition of financial turbulence, pose downside risks to the outlook. Fiscal prudence and pro-market policies from the center-right government pose upside risks.

Commenting on the release, Paolo Pizzoli, senior economist at ING, stated: “Thanks to a resilient labour market and decent wage growth, we suspect that consumption might not have acted as a drag in the third quarter, and could gain potential support over the winter from the impact of declining inflation on real disposable income.” Moreover, Pizzoli commented on Italy’s economic and fiscal outlook: “Softening growth and rising debt servicing costs are re-awakening debt sustainability concerns, which call for a swift return to primary surpluses. How big these will have to be will also depend on whether the government will manage to effectively implement the Recovery and Resilience Plan.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Italian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 49 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Italian GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Italian GDP projections.

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