Indonesia Trade

Merchandise trade slips into deficit in May

Latest reading: In May, the trade balance was USD -0.6 billion, following a USD +1.1 billion reading in the previous month. This was the largest deficit since November 2019. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +39.6 billion. Merchandise exports dropped 4.8% in annual terms in May, coming on the back of 22.2% growth in the previous month. Meanwhile, merchandise imports increased 22.7% in annual terms in May, following a 23.0% increase in the prior month.

Panelist insight: United Overseas Bank’s Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Vincentius Ming Shen commented: “The end of Indonesia’s six-year trade surplus streak could potentially weigh on its current account deficit further. Persistent import growth—particularly in energy and capital goods—combined with a weaker rupiah, presents ongoing challenges. Meanwhile, export contraction underscores vulnerability to shifting global demand and tariff pressures (e.g., US reciprocal tariffs).”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Indonesian trade projections for the next ten years from a panel of 14 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable trade forecast available for Indonesian trade.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Indonesian trade projections.

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