Estonia Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn)

Merchandise Trade Balance in Estonia

The economy likely shrank at a slower year-on-year pace in Q1 2023. Industrial output declined less sharply than in Q4, as producer price inflation eased to the lowest rate since Q2 2021. Inflation in Q1 fell to the softest pace in a year, wage growth accelerated, and the unemployment rate declined. This will have eased the burden on household budgets. Less positively, the external sector likely weighed on overall growth, as merchandise exports plunged at the fastest rate since Q2 2020. In Q2, the economic decline is likely softening further: In April, economic sentiment improved, inflation moderated again, and producer prices grew at the weakest rate in 26 months. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Kallas unveiled plans for higher taxation and defense spending in April. In May, during an Article IV visit, the IMF advised that the tax reform be brought forward to curb the country’s fiscal imbalance.