Colombia Private consumption

Economic growth strongly picks up in Q2 2026

GDP growth accelerates more than expected: Colombia's GDP expanded 3.5% in annual terms in Q2, following a 2.2% expansion in the prior quarter and beating market expectations.On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic output grew 1.3% in Q2, following a 0.6% expansion in the prior quarter.

Domestic demand triggers Q2’s acceleration: Compared with the prior period's data, figures in Q2 improved for private consumption (+2.8% in annual terms vs +2.7% in Q1), fixed investment (+7.0% vs +4.1% in Q1) and imports of goods and services (+7.5% vs +3.6% in Q1). In contrast, readings worsened for government consumption (+12.2% vs +13.2% in Q1) and exports of goods and services (-1.0% vs +1.7% in Q1). Private consumption benefited from a higher minimum wage, as well as a temporary boost from the football World Cup-related spending. Government consumption also increased, supported by retroactive wage payments to public employees, spending related to the electoral process and stronger public administration, defense, education and health activity. On the downside, the external sector weighed on overall GDP growth.

Momentum will fade in Q3: GDP growth is expected to slow in Q3. Higher interest rates should weigh on fixed investment. This will be compounded by a normalization of the strong public-sector impulse that supported economic momentum in the first half of 2026. GDP growth also faces several downside risks. In August, one of Colombia’s strongest earthquakes in the past decade struck the country, with damage estimated at around USD 9.6 billion. Moreover, dry weather linked to El Niño could weigh on agricultural output and hydroelectric power generation. On the upside, refining activity should benefit from elevated global gasoline prices, while more market-friendly policies under newly elected President Abelardo de la Espriella could also support the medium-term economic growth outlook.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, BBVA’s Mauricio Hernández-Monsalve stated: “Growth of 2.9% in the first half leaves the economy with stronger momentum, but several of the second-quarter drivers are unlikely to persist. We expect public spending and the most interest-rate-sensitive components of private demand to moderate, partially offset by civil works and, over the medium term, by housing. […] Broader infrastructure and mining projects could also provide additional support to economic growth.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Colombian private consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 33 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable private consumption forecast available for Colombian private consumption.

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