Economic Growth in Chile
Chile's GDP growth from 2013 to 2022 was much slower than in the prior decade. The economy experienced steady—albeit muted—growth until 2019. However, the 2019 social unrest and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic disrupted this trajectory, causing a significant economic contraction. Recovery began in 2021, fueled by rising copper prices and government stimulus measures. By 2022, Chile was focused on sustaining this recovery while addressing structural inequalities and diversifying its economy beyond copper dependence.
The Chilean economy recorded an average growth rate of 2.3% in the decade to 2022, above the 1.3% average for Latin America. In 2022, real GDP growth was 2.4%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Chile GDP Chart
Chile GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %)||4.0||0.7||-6.1||11.7||2.4|
|GDP (USD bn)||295||278||255||316||301|
|GDP (CLP bn)||189,435||195,752||201,429||240,371||262,593|
|Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %)||5.6||3.3||2.9||19.3||9.2|
Economy bounces back in Q3
GDP expanded 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in the third quarter. This contrasted the 0.3% contraction recorded in the second quarter and was in line with the provisional estimate calculated from monthly economic activity data. On an annual basis, GDP increased 0.6% in Q3, contrasting the previous quarter's 0.8% fall. Q3's reading marked the best result since Q2 2022. In Q3, the economy benefited from improved copper output, lower inflation, interest rate cuts and surging hydroelectric generation thanks to recent rains.
Looking at expenditure components, household spending improved to 1.2% seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, which marked the best reading since Q3 2021 (Q2: +0.2% s.a. qoq). Public consumption, meanwhile, rebounded, growing 0.9% in Q3 (Q2: -2.2% s.a. qoq). Fixed investment contracted 2.2% in Q3, marking the worst result since Q2 2022 (Q2: +0.9% s.a. qoq). Exports of goods and services growth hit an over one-year high of 1.3% in the third quarter (Q2: -1.4% s.a. qoq). Conversely, imports of goods and services deteriorated, contracting 1.3% in Q3 (Q2: +3.2% s.a. qoq).
Turning to Q4, our Consensus is for further mild GDP growth in quarterly and annual terms, with the economy aided by further falls in inflation and interest rates. That said, investor uncertainty over the new constitution and potential tax hikes are likely constraining investment.
On the recent data and outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said: “Slight upside revisions to GDP in previous quarters and the positive surprise for 3Q23 should likely lead to a milder contraction (or even a null variation) for the economy this year, relative to our -0.3% call. Of note, Chile’s GDP has surprised to the upside in the past three consecutive prints, with net exports playing an important role, leading to upward revisions in this year’s growth forecast. However, even as private consumption is expected to sequentially improve, a weak labor market should limit greater momentum, while the outlook for private investment remains challenging.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Chilean GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 46 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Chilean GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Chilean GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Chilean GDP forecasts? Send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org.