Skyline at golden hour in Turkey

Turkey GDP

Turkey GDP

Economic Growth in Turkey

Turkey's GDP growth from 2013 to 2022 was marked by volatility, influenced by political instability, monetary policy challenges, and currency fluctuations. The early years saw robust growth, but political upheavals and security concerns slowed the economy mid-decade. A sharp currency devaluation in 2018 prompted a further slowdown. That said, Turkey was one of the few large economies to avoid contraction in 2020 during the pandemic, and has notched rapid GDP growth in the two years since then.

Turkey's economy recorded an average growth rate of 5.3% in the decade to 2022, higher than the 2.5% average for Eastern Europe. In 2022, real GDP growth was 5.5%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.

Turkey GDP Chart

Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Turkey from 2023 to 2022.
Source: Macrobond.

Turkey GDP Data

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 0.8 1.9 11.4 5.5 4.5
GDP (USD bn) 760 719 814 905 1,104
GDP (EUR bn) 679 630 688 861 1,021
GDP (TRY bn) 4,318 5,049 7,256 15,012 26,276
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 14.8 16.9 43.7 106.9 75.0

Economic growth records quickest upturn in three quarters in Q1

GDP growth accelerated to 2.4% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in the first quarter from 1.0% in the fourth quarter of last year. Q1's reading marked the fastest expansion since Q2 2023. On an annual basis, economic growth picked up to 5.7% in Q1, following the previous quarter's 4.0% growth.

The quarterly improvement was driven by rebounds in government spending, fixed investment and exports. Government consumption bounced back, growing 2.2% in Q1 (Q4 2023: -4.3% s.a. qoq). Fixed investment also rebounded, rising 2.9% in Q1, contrasting the 0.8% contraction recorded in the prior quarter. That said, household spending growth moderated to 1.1% seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter in Q1 compared to a 3.6% expansion in Q4, as rising inflation throughout the quarter hurt consumers purchasing power. On the external front, exports of goods and services bounced back, growing 2.9% in Q1 (Q4 2023: -2.5% s.a. qoq). Conversely, imports of goods and services fell at a quicker pace of 4.0% in Q1 (Q4 2023: -3.9% s.a. qoq).

Our panelists see sequential GDP growth grinding to a halt in Q2, and pessimistic survey data for April and May backs this projection. Momentum will remain subdued throughout the remainder of the year, dented by the Central Bank’s tight monetary policy stance amid sky-high inflation. Spending cuts announced by the government in May will weigh on growth further. Rising instability in the Middle East poses a downside risk to the outlook.

Muhammet Mercan, chief economist at ING, commented on the outlook: “Growth is expected to lose significant momentum throughout the remainder of the year with tightening financial conditions, slowing real wage growth and a likely increase in the unemployment rate.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Turkish GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 44 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Turkish GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Turkish GDP projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Turkish GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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