Skyline at golden hour in Turkey

Turkey GDP

Turkey GDP

Economic Growth in Turkey

Turkey's GDP growth from 2013 to 2022 was marked by volatility, influenced by political instability, monetary policy challenges, and currency fluctuations. The early years saw robust growth, but political upheavals and security concerns slowed the economy mid-decade. A sharp currency devaluation in 2018 prompted a further slowdown. That said, Turkey was one of the few large economies to avoid contraction in 2020 during the pandemic, and has notched rapid GDP growth in the two years since then.

Turkey's economy recorded an average growth rate of 5.3% in the decade to 2022, higher than the 2.5% average for Eastern Europe. In 2022, real GDP growth was 5.5%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.

Turkey GDP Chart

Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Turkey from 2023 to 2022.
Source: TURKSTAT.

Turkey GDP Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.0 0.8 1.9 11.4 5.5
GDP (USD bn) 776 760 719 814 905
GDP (EUR bn) 658 679 630 688 861
GDP (TRY bn) 3,761 4,318 5,049 7,256 15,012
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 20.0 14.8 16.9 43.7 106.9

Economy improves in the final quarter of 2023

GDP growth improved to 1.0% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q4 from 0.3% in the third quarter. The reading surprised markets on the upside and was mainly driven by stronger private consumption. On an annual basis, economic growth slowed notably to 4.0% in Q4 from 6.1% in the previous period. Looking at 2023 as a whole, the economy grew 4.5%, down from 5.5% in 2022 and below the 10-year average of 5.3%.

Household spending growth rebounded, growing 3.6% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q4 compared to a 1.7% contraction in Q3. The improvement was largely due to strong resilience among Turkish consumers to the rising cost of living; average inflation in the quarter rose to its highest level in a year, while financing conditions were markedly tighter than in Q3. Government spending, meanwhile, dropped at the sharpest pace since Q3 2022, contracting 4.3% (Q3: +2.6% s.a. qoq). Meanwhile, fixed investment contracted 0.8% in Q4, marking the worst reading since Q3 2022 (Q3: +4.9% s.a. qoq), likely dented by the Central Bank’s sharp monetary tightening. On the external front, exports of goods and services contracted 2.5% in Q4, marking the worst result since Q4 2022 (Q3: +5.2% s.a. qoq). Meanwhile, imports of goods and services deteriorated, contracting 3.9% in Q4 (Q3: +1.6% s.a. qoq).

Business and consumer survey data for January and February suggests that the economy started the year on a solid footing, with the government’s commitment to orthodox economic policies likely shoring up investor sentiment. Nonetheless, sequential growth is forecast to remain subdued until Q4, the point at which the Central Bank is set to begin cutting interest rates amid softer price pressures. The escalation of regional geopolitical tensions poses a downside risk.

Muhammet Mercan, chief economist at ING, commented on the outlook: “We see GDP growth this year at 2.5%. The risks are, however, on the upside given the Medium Term Plan (MTP) forecast of 4% from the government and the continuing supportive fiscal stance in addition to a potential recovery in foreign capital inflow.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Turkish GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 43 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Turkish GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Turkish GDP projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Turkish GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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