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Philippines Interest Rate

Philippines Interest Rate

Target Reverse Repurchase in Philippines

The target reverse repurchase rate ended 2022 at 5.50%, up from the 2.00% end-2021 value and up from the reading of 3.50% a decade earlier. For reference, the average target reverse repurchase rate in the Asia-Pacific region was 3.70% at the end of 2022. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.

Philippines Interest Rate Chart

Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for Philippines from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Central Bank Philippines.

Philippines Interest Rate Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Target Reverse Repurchase (RRP) Rate (%, eop) 4.75 4.00 2.00 2.00 5.50
91-Day Treasury Bill (%, eop) 5.36 3.19 1.01 1.14 4.09
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 7.07 4.45 3.02 4.82 7.01

BSP leaves rates unchanged in May, hints at start of easing cycle

As expected, at its meeting on 16 May, the Monetary Board of Bangko Sentral Pilipinas (BSP) decided to maintain the Target Reverse Repurchase (RRP) Rate at 6.50%, with the interest rates on the overnight deposit and lending facilities remaining at 6.00% and 7.00%, respectively.

The decision to hold interest rates was primarily driven by inflation risks remaining skewed to the upside, relating to transport charges, food prices, electricity rates and global oil prices. Moreover, the BSP’s latest risk-adjusted forecasts suggest inflation will be close to the upper end of its official target range of 2.0–4.0% in 2024 and 2025, though they were revised slightly downward since the Bank last met.

The Monetary Board indicated that it remained ready to adjust its monetary policy settings as necessary to ensure price stability and anchor inflation firmly within target. That said, in a subsequent statement, Governor Remolona stated that the BSP could begin cutting rates as early as August. Our panelists foresee about 50 basis points of rate cuts by end-2024. The timing and pace of the U.S. Fed’s monetary policy loosening cycle remains a factor to watch. The BSP will convene next on 27 June.

EIU analysts commented on the outlook: “We believe that the BSP will cut the policy rate by 25 basis points at its meeting on October 17th as the Fed eases and lower inflation enables the Philippine central bank to focus on supporting economic growth. However, considering still-present risks to food prices from weather conditions, as well as the upward pressure on consumer prices from a weak peso and high global oil prices, there is still a risk that sticky inflation will force the BSP to keep interest rates higher for longer.” ING analyst Nicholas Mapa said: “Should headline and core inflation continue to slide and barring any potential supply side shocks, we believe that the BSP can adjust policy rates ASAF (As Soon as the Fed does). Given our expectation that the Federal Reserve could cut policy rates at their May or June meeting, we expect that BSP could consider cutting its policy rate as early as the 27 June policy meeting.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Philippine interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 22 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Philippine interest rate.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Philippine interest rate projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Philippine interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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