Economic Growth in Italy
Italy's GDP growth from 2013-2022 was sluggish, reflecting structural economic weaknesses such as dire demographics, low productivity growth, a sclerotic bureaucracy and political uncertainty. The country faced persistent challenges, including high public debt and low productivity growth. The economy contracted sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic, exacerbating pre-existing issues. Recovery in 2021-2022 was supported by EU recovery funds but long-term growth prospects remained constrained by structural barriers and the need for deeper economic reforms.
Italy's economy recorded an average real GDP growth rate of 0.6% in the decade leading to 2022, below the 1.4% average for the Euro Area. In 2022, real GDP growth was 3.9%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Italy GDP Chart
Italy GDP Data
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 0.4 | -9.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 0.8 |
GDP (EUR bn) | 1,805 | 1,669 | 1,839 | 1,996 | 2,129 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.5 | -7.5 | 10.2 | 8.5 | 6.7 |
Economy loses momentum in Q2
GDP reading: A second release confirmed that GDP rose 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q2, a less sharp expansion than Q1’s 0.3% but matching market expectations. On an annual basis, GDP logged a 0.9% expansion in Q2, surpassing the 0.6% increase registered in Q1 and marking the best result since Q1 2023.
Drivers: The quarterly moderation was broad-based: Growth in private consumption plus fixed investment weakened, while public spending and exports swung into decline. Looking at the details of the release, household spending growth inched down to 0.2% in the second quarter, which was below the first quarter's 0.3% expansion. Fixed investment also lost traction, posting a 0.3% expansion in Q2 (Q1: +0.5% s.a. qoq). Moreover, public spending contracted 0.5% in Q2, deteriorating from Q1’s flat reading. On the external front, exports of goods and services fell sharply by 1.5% on a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis in Q2, which contrasted Q1’s flat reading. Conversely, imports of goods and services contracted at a slower pace of 0.6% in Q2 (Q1: -2.7% s.a. qoq).
GDP outlook: Our panelists forecast GDP growth to hover near Q2’s relatively weak level through end-2024 as increased private spending growth plus rebounds in public spending and exports will likely be offset by the hit to fixed investment arising from tight financial conditions. Over 2024 as a whole, the economy is projected to expand at a similar pace to last year. Growth in fixed investment, public consumption and private spending will decline. However, stronger exports growth—driven by stronger Eurozone demand in the second half of the year—will offer support. The potential missed implementation of EU recovery fund investments poses a downside risk.
Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook. ING’s Paolo Pizzoli stated: “In the third quarter, growth will remain very much a services story, with the tourism component as a driver, with some caveats. While the balance of payments data seems to confirm a very good performance in the international component of tourism demand, anecdotal evidence (data for July is not yet available) is much less clear on the domestic component. The setback in August consumer confidence also suggests some prudence.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Italian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 51 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Italian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Italian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Italian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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