Skyline of Florence, Italy

Italy GDP

Italy GDP

Economic Growth in Italy

Italy's GDP growth from 2013-2022 was sluggish, reflecting structural economic weaknesses such as dire demographics, low productivity growth, a sclerotic bureaucracy and political uncertainty. The country faced persistent challenges, including high public debt and low productivity growth. The economy contracted sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic, exacerbating pre-existing issues. Recovery in 2021-2022 was supported by EU recovery funds but long-term growth prospects remained constrained by structural barriers and the need for deeper economic reforms.

Italy's economy recorded an average real GDP growth rate of 0.6% in the decade leading to 2022, below the 1.4% average for the Euro Area. In 2022, real GDP growth was 3.9%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.

Italy GDP Chart

Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Italy from 2022 to 2021.
Source: Macrobond.

Italy GDP Data

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 0.5 -9.0 8.3 4.1 1.0
GDP (EUR bn) 1,796 1,660 1,820 1,963 2,088
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 1.4 -7.6 9.6 7.9 6.3

GDP growth ticks up in Q1

A second reading confirmed that GDP growth ticked up to 0.3% in the first quarter, up from the 0.1% expansion seen in the fourth quarter of last year. On an annual basis, economic growth was stable at 0.7% in Q1.

Private consumption increased 0.3% in the first quarter, which contrasted the fourth quarter's 1.4% contraction. Government spending growth waned to 0.1% in Q1 (Q4 2023: +0.6%). Meanwhile, fixed investment growth fell to 0.5% in Q1, marking the worst reading since Q2 2023 (Q4 2023: +2.0%). On the external front, exports of goods and services growth fell to 0.6% in Q1, marking the worst result since Q2 2023 (Q4 2023: +1.2%). In addition, imports of goods and services deteriorated, contracting 1.7% in Q1 (Q4 2023: +0.1%).

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Italian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 50 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Italian GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Italian GDP projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Italian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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