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Colombia GDP

Colombia GDP

Economic Growth in Colombia

Colombia's economy showed solid growth in the early part of the decade, benefiting from high oil prices. However, the decline in oil prices around 2015 and the 2020 pandemic led to economic downturns. By 2022, Colombia was on a recovery path, driven by a rebound in oil prices and government fiscal support, though surging inflation and interest rates were holding back activity.,

The Colombian economy recorded average real GDP growth of 3.3% in the decade to 2022, well above the 1.3% average for Latin America. In 2022, real GDP growth was 7.3%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.

Colombia GDP Chart

Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Colombia from 2019 to 2018.
Source: DANE Colombia.

Colombia GDP Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.6 3.2 -7.2 10.8 7.3
GDP (USD bn) 334 323 270 319 345
GDP (COP tn) 988 1,060 998 1,193 1,470
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 7.3 7.3 -5.8 19.4 23.2

GDP rebounds but undershoots market expectations in Q4

Economic activity bounced back, increasing 0.3% year on year in the fourth quarter, above the 0.6% contraction recorded in the third quarter. Q4's reading marked the best result since Q1 2023 but fell short of market expectations. Consequently, GDP expanded 0.6% overall in 2023, decelerating markedly from 2022’s 7.3% rise and undershooting the Central Bank’s forecast. Barring 2020’s pandemic-induced downturn, 2023’s result was the weakest since 1999, as the Central Bank’s aggressive rate hikes took a toll on activity. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic activity flatlined in Q4, slowing from the previous quarter's 0.3% expansion.

The rebound in annual GDP chiefly reflected an upturn in exports. Domestically, private consumption growth fell to 0.1% in Q4 (Q3: +0.2% yoy), marking the weakest expansion since Q3 2020. Although average inflation was below Q3 in Q4, it was more than double the upper bound of the Central Bank’s 2.0–4.0% target band, weighing on household budgets. Similarly, public spending growth slowed to 1.5% in Q4 (Q3: +2.9% yoy). Meanwhile, fixed investment contracted 14.0% in Q4 (Q3: -10.9% yoy), marking the worst reading since Q3 2020. Turning to the external sector, exports of goods and services rebounded, growing 7.0% year on year in the final quarter (Q3: -0.3% yoy), which marked the best reading since Q3 2022. Meanwhile, imports of goods and services declined at a slower rate of 12.8% in Q4 (Q3: -23.1% yoy).

Our Consensus is for growth to gain some steam this year, largely on a low base of comparison. Still, household consumption will pick up momentum amid milder price pressures, while public spending will also strengthen at a brisker pace. Meanwhile, in light of Q4’s underwhelming result, the Central Bank could shift gears to a more aggressive loosening cycle in order to better support the lagging economy, despite above-target inflation.

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Colombian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 50 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Colombian GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Colombian GDP projections.

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