Temporary factors boost output: GDP growth gathered traction to 5.4% year on year in the fourth quarter of 2024, up...
Economic Growth in Chile
Chile's GDP growth from 2013 to 2022 was much slower than in the prior decade. The economy experienced steady—albeit muted—growth until 2019. However, the 2019 social unrest and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic disrupted this trajectory, causing a significant economic contraction. Recovery began in 2021, fueled by rising copper prices and government stimulus measures. By 2022, Chile was focused on sustaining this recovery while addressing structural inequalities and diversifying its economy beyond copper dependence.
The Chilean economy recorded an average growth rate of 2.3% in the decade to 2022, above the 1.3% average for Latin America. In 2022, real GDP growth was 2.4%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Chile GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Chile from 2017 to 2016.
Source: Macrobond.
Chile GDP Data
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 0.6 | -6.1 | 11.3 | 2.1 | 0.2 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 278 | 254 | 315 | 302 | 335 |
| GDP (CLP bn) | 195,532 | 201,258 | 239,562 | 263,843 | 281,870 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 3.2 | 2.9 | 19.0 | 10.1 | 6.8 |
Economy bounces back in the third quarter
GDP reading: GDP increased 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter basis in the third quarter, contrasting the 0.6% contraction recorded in the second quarter. The rebound was linked to recoveries in private and public spending. On an annual basis, economic growth improved to 2.3% in Q3, following the previous quarter's 1.6% growth.
Improved consumption outweighs weaker external sector: Household spending increased 0.1% in the third quarter, which contrasted the second quarter's 0.4% contraction. Public spending rebounded, growing 1.0% in Q3 (Q2: -1.5% s.a. qoq). Meanwhile, fixed investment growth moderated to 1.2% in Q3, below the 1.7% increase recorded in the prior quarter. Exports of goods and services growth fell to 1.7% in Q3 (Q2: +2.4% s.a. qoq). Conversely, imports of goods and services bounced back, rising 1.8% in Q3 (Q2: -0.4% s.a. qoq).
Slowdown expected ahead: Our Consensus is for a softer rate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q4 vs Q3.
Panelist insight: On risks to the outlook, EIU analysts said: “The greater than anticipated win for Mr Trump has raised the risk that his more hardline trade policies will be pursued. His proposals have included a potential blanket tariff of up to 20% on imports to the US. If this tariff applied to Chile, which is possible, it would weigh on Chilean exports and overall growth. Furthermore, Mr Trump's threat to impose high tariffs on China risks slowing growth in that country, which is the largest destination for Chilean goods. Domestically, the upcoming presidential election, which is scheduled for November 2025, will keep business confidence in pessimistic territory for much of next year; we expect the election to prompt a wait-and-see approach to major investment decisions.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Chilean GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 50 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Chilean GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Chilean GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Chilean GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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