Inflation rises in June

Inflation rose for a second consecutive month in June, coming in at 4.2%, up from May’s 3.9% but still undershooting market expectations. Looking at the details of the release, prices for transportation plus food and beverages increased at a quicker pace. Conversely, housing and utilities, plus clothing price growth moderated. Accordingly, the trend pointed up mildly, with annual average inflation coming in at 4.4% in June (May: 4.3%). Meanwhile, core inflation edged down to 3.7% in June from the previous month's 3.8%. Finally, consumer prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.21% in June over the previous month, below the 0.46% increase logged in May. June's result marked the weakest reading since March.

Our panelists project inflation to stabilize around its current level until the end of 2024, remaining comfortably within the Central Bank of Brazil's 1.5–4.5% tolerance band. However, additional extreme weather events, rising food costs and a weaker-than-anticipated real are upward risks.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Brazilian inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 39 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Brazilian inflation.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Brazilian inflation projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Brazilian inflation forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.