GDP reading: GDP growth moderated to 2.5% in seasonally adjusted annualized rate terms (SAAR) in the final quarter of 2024...
Economic Growth in Brazil
Brazil's GDP growth between 2013 and 2022 was characterized by economic turbulence and modest recoveries. The country entered a severe recession in 2015-2016, driven by political instability and declining commodity prices. Subsequent years saw gradual recovery, although growth remained sluggish. The COVID-19 pandemic brought another downturn, but the economy showed resilience in 2021-2022, partly due to commodity exports and strong fiscal stimulus.
The Brazilian economy recorded an average growth rate of 0.6% in the decade to 2022, below the 1.3% average for Latin America. In 2022, Brazil's real GDP growth was 2.9%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Brazil GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Brazil from 2024 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
Brazil GDP Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.3 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.4 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 1,477 | 1,670 | 1,952 | 2,191 | 2,191 |
| GDP (BRL bn) | 7,610 | 9,012 | 10,080 | 10,943 | 11,804 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 3.0 | 18.4 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 7.9 |
High interest rates stop economy in its tracks in Q4
Tight monetary policy halts economic growth: The Brazilian economy decelerated sharply at the close of 2024, with GDP growth falling to 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in the final quarter of the year from a downwardly revised 0.7% in the third quarter. The print was the slowest expansion since Q3 2023 and missed market expectations, potentially prompting the Central Bank to hike less sharply in the coming quarters. On an annual basis, economic growth slowed to 3.6% in Q4 from the previous period's 4.0% expansion, and also undershot market projections. Accordingly, overall GDP growth in 2024 accelerated to 3.4% (2023: +3.2%), the strongest rise since 2011—bar 2021’s post-pandemic rebound.
Downturn was broad-based: The quarterly deceleration was broad-based and largely reflected higher inflation and tighter monetary policy cooling the economy. Domestically, household spending swung to a 1.0% seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter contraction in Q4 (Q3: +1.3% s.a. qoq), marking the worst result since Q2 2021; moreover, fixed investment growth fell to 0.4% (Q3: +2.3% s.a. qoq), marking the worst result since Q3 2023. Meanwhile, government spending growth ebbed to 0.6% in Q4 (Q3: +0.8% s.a. qoq). On the external front, exports of goods and services declined at a quicker pace of 1.3% (Q3: -0.7% s.a. qoq). Meanwhile, imports of goods and services contracted 0.1% in Q4 (Q3: +0.9% s.a. qoq), marking the sharpest decline since Q1 2023.
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Brazilian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 51 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Brazilian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Brazilian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Brazilian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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