Economic Growth in Argentina
Argentina's GDP growth over the last decade was highly volatile, marked by economic recessions and brief recoveries. The economy faced significant contractions, particularly during periods of political uncertainty and fiscal imbalances. Inflation and currency devaluation further hampered growth, with a notable recession in 2018-2019. Despite some recovery attempts, the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the economic downturn. In 2023, Argentina had slipped back into contraction, weighed on by soaring inflation and drought crimping agricultural production. This recession continued into H1 2024, but by end-2024 the economy was in recovery mode as inflation and interest rates declined.
In the year 2024, the economic growth in Argentina was -1.72%, compared to -2.51% in 2014 and -1.61% in 2023. It averaged -0.11% over the last decade. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Argentina GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Argentina from 2022 to 2021.
Source: Macrobond.
Argentina GDP Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -9.9 | 10.4 | 6.0 | -1.9 | -1.3 |
GDP (USD bn) | 385 | 486 | 633 | 651 | 638 |
GDP (ARS bn) | 27,210 | 46,219 | 82,810 | 192,408 | 583,910 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 26.2 | 69.9 | 79.2 | 132.3 | 203.5 |
GDP grows at robust pace in the first quarter
Economy remains strong despite slowdown: GDP growth slowed markedly to 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter basis in the first quarter from 2.0% in the fourth quarter of last year. This was the weakest result since Q2 2024 but still elevated by historical standards. The economic recovery remains well on track thanks to lower inflation plus reforms to boost competition and reduce the government’s economic footprint.
Broad-based expansion: Household spending growth fell to 2.9% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +4.2% s.a. qoq). Public spending contracted 0.1% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +0.2% s.a. qoq). Meanwhile, fixed investment growth fell to 9.8% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +12.3% s.a. qoq). On the external front, exports of goods and services contracted 1.5% in Q1, hurt by the strong peso in real terms (Q4 2024: +6.2% s.a. qoq). Conversely, imports of goods and services growth picked up to 17.7% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +15.1% s.a. qoq) as import restrictions were eased.
Panelist insight: On the outlook for 2025 as a whole, EIU analysts said: “Real GDP will register strong growth in 2025 owing to a firm recovery in fixed investment and exports amid higher output growth in the mining and energy sectors. Private consumption will partly recover as disinflation causes real wages and pensions to rise, but an uneven labour market recovery with high levels of informality will prevent a faster recovery. Easing credit conditions and a more supportive business environment will boost private investment, which is especially helpful for real estate investment that will in turn support the lagging construction sector that has been hard hit by the government's drastic cuts to public works projects. Strong domestic demand growth will cause imports to rise, which will act as drag on growth. Government consumption will grow slowly as the government pursues aggressive fiscal savings.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Argentine GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 57 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Argentine GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Argentine GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Argentine GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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