The skyline in Argentina

Argentina GDP

Argentina GDP

Economic Growth in Argentina

Argentina's GDP growth from 2013-2022 was highly volatile, marked by economic recessions and brief recoveries. The economy faced significant contractions, particularly during periods of political uncertainty and fiscal imbalances. Inflation and currency devaluation further hampered growth, with a notable recession in 2018-2019. Despite some recovery attempts, the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the economic downturn. By 2022, Argentina was grappling with a stagnant economy, high inflation, and a challenging debt burden, reflecting deep-rooted structural issues and economic mismanagement.

In Argentina, the economy recorded an average growth rate of 0.4% in the decade to 2022, below the 1.3% average for Latin America. In 2022, real GDP growth was 5.0%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.

Argentina GDP Chart

Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Argentina from 2014 to 2023.
Source: INDEC Argentina.

Argentina GDP Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -2.6 -2.0 -9.9 10.7 5.0
GDP (USD bn) 525 447 385 487 630
GDP (ARS bn) 14,745 21,558 27,210 46,346 82,436
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 38.3 46.2 26.2 70.3 77.9

GDP slides at a more pronounced pace in Q4

GDP contracted at a steeper pace of 1.4% year on year in the fourth quarter, below the 0.8% contraction logged in the third quarter. On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic activity contracted 1.9% in Q4, contrasting the previous quarter's 2.2% expansion.

The downturn was broad-based, with private consumption, public spending, fixed investment and exports all contracting. Private consumption contracted 1.5% in Q4, marking the worst result since Q4 2020 (Q3: +0.2% yoy). Government spending dropped 3.2% (Q3: +2.1% yoy), while fixed investment shrank 6.8% in Q4, marking the worst result since Q3 2020 (Q3: +1.0% yoy). Exports of goods and services fell 6.3% on an annual basis in the fourth quarter, which was below the third quarter's 4.7% contraction. In addition, imports of goods and services deteriorated, contracting 1.8% in Q4 (Q3: +2.1% yoy).

Q1 should register an even sharper sequential drop amid President Milei’s macroeconomic adjustment plan, as indicated by depressed consumer sentiment in January-February and falling industrial output in January. Meanwhile, in January-February, the government recorded two consecutive first monthly fiscal surpluses, which bodes well for macroeconomic stability going forward.

Commenting on the risks surrounding the outlook for 2024, Credicorp Capital’s analysts stated: “The year 2024 continues to be fraught with uncertainty, due to the high levels of inflation at the beginning of the year impacting household purchasing power. Risks remain tilted to the upside, considering the process of relative prices adjustment, the characteristic high persistence in the economy, uncertainty about the dismantling of capital controls, and governance tensions that hinder fiscal consolidation efforts.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Argentine GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 58 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Argentine GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Argentine GDP projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Argentine GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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