United States: Labor market loses steam in October
Total non-farm payrolls grew by 150,000 in October, slightly below market expectations and roughly half of September’s figure. Job gains were seen in health care, government, and social assistance, though employment fell in manufacturing due to strike activity.
The unemployment rate was 3.9% in October, the highest rate since January 2022, while annual wage growth dipped from 4.3% to 4.1%.
Taken together, the figures show that the labor market lost steam in October, which chimes with our panelists’ forecasts for slowdowns in private spending and GDP growth in Q4 as a whole.
Our Consensus is for the labor market to continue to gradually slow ahead, with the unemployment rate forecast to reach 4.5% by the end of next year.