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United States Unemployment June 2023

United States: Job gains undershoot market expectations in June

Total non-farm payrolls grew by 209,000 in June, undershooting market expectations for the first time in over a year. Gains in government, health care, social assistance and construction underpinned the reading. Moreover, job gains for the previous two months were revised down. However, payroll gains were still above the pre-pandemic 10-year average.

The unemployment rate was 3.6% in June, around pre-pandemic levels, while wage growth was robust. This data suggests that the Fed’s aggressive hiking cycle has yet to significantly dent the labor market, and could tee up more rate hikes ahead. Looking forward, our panelists see the labor market loosening slightly in H2, with the unemployment rate forecast to move above 4% by Q4.

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