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Ukraine Inflation May 2021

Ukraine: Inflation hits two-year high in May

Consumer prices increased 1.28% in May over the previous month, picking up from April’s 0.70% increase. The figure was largely driven by rising prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages. In addition, price pressures for alcoholic beverages and tobacco increased at a faster pace. Notably, higher household gas tariffs further fueled Inflationarry pressures.

Inflation came in at 9.5% in May, which was up from April’s 8.4%. May’s figure was the highest inflation rate since May 2019. Annual average inflation rose to 5.1% in May (April: 4.4%). Core inflation rose to 6.9% in May, from April’s 6.3%.

Commenting on the result, Andrew Matheny and Tadas Gedminas, economists at Goldman Sachs, said:

“Today’s surprise mechanically shifts our inflation path higher, and we now expect inflation to peak at around or slightly above +10%yoy in Q3. The print also likely constitutes an upside surprise to the NBU’s forecast, as the latest projections showed inflation peaking at +9.5%yoy at end-Q3. Going forward, the risks to our projection remain skewed to the upside, as global energy and soft commodity prices continue to climb, and this increase is only partially offset by the appreciation of the Hryvnia.”

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