The motherland monument in Ukraine

Ukraine GDP Q3 2021

Ukraine: GDP growth wanes in the third quarter of 2021

A second national accounts release confirmed that economic growth softened in the third quarter, with GDP expanding 2.7% year-on-year (Q2: +5.7% yoy). Nevertheless, Q3’s result came in higher than the preliminary estimate of a 2.4% expansion.

The slowdown was broad-based, with private consumption, public spending, fixed investment and exports all softening. Household spending increased 9.0% in the third quarter, which was below the second quarter’s 17.4% expansion. Public consumption dropped at the sharpest pace since Q3 2020, contracting 0.7% (Q2: +3.1% yoy). Meanwhile, fixed investment growth eased to 14.5% in Q3, from 14.8% in the prior quarter.

On the external front, exports of goods and services fell 8.6% on an annual basis in the third quarter, which was below the second quarter’s 6.2% contraction. In addition, growth in imports of goods and services waned to 12.6% in Q3 (Q2: +21.9% yoy). As such, the external sector subtracted 11.2 percentage points from the overall result, improving from the 14.1 percentage-point deduction logged in the previous quarter.

On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth rose to 1.5% in Q3, contrasting the previous quarter’s 0.7% contraction. Q3’s reading marked the best result since Q3 2020.

Looking ahead, most of our analysts project GDP growth to have accelerated in the final quarter of the year, but have downgraded overall growth for 2021. Meanwhile, regional tensions with neighboring Russia have continued to escalate after reports of military buildups at the border were made public last month and recent talks have done little to douse the dispute. Although no full-scale conflict has been reported, any escalation could further destabilize the region and thus threaten the outlook going forward.

Free sample report

Access essential information in the shortest time possible. FocusEconomics provide hundreds of consensus forecast reports from the most reputable economic research authorities in the world.
Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest