Skyline at golden hour in Turkey

Turkey Monetary Policy October 2020

Turkey: Central Bank holds fire in October but tightens rate corridor

Contrary to market analysts’ expectations, the Central Bank stood pat and kept the one-week repo rate at 10.25% at its 22 October meeting. Analysts had expected another rate hike to address deteriorating inflation expectations and boost the Bank’s credibility with investors. Instead, policy-makers opted to adjust the monetary policy framework by hiking the late liquidity window to 14.75% from 13.25%, thus raising the cost of funding and supporting the lira in turn.

In deliberating its decision, the Bank noted that while inflation was following a “higher-than-envisaged path” amid the strong economic recovery, September’s 200-basis-point increase to the one-week repo rate and changes to liquidity management had resulted in a notable tightening in financial conditions. Meanwhile, the Bank highlighted that the economy was recovering at a softer pace amid loan growth normalization on the back of prior policy actions. The Bank also expects the current account balance to improve in the coming months, with imports projected to moderate as supportive polices are phased out.

In its press release, the Central Bank struck a largely unchanged tone; however, it did state that the easing of the inflation rate had stopped and needed to be restored, adding that it “requires the continuation of a cautious monetary stance”. At the same time, the Bank signaled that it will continue down the road of liquidity management rather than interest rate changes until the “inflation outlook displays a significant improvement”.

The next meeting is scheduled for 19 November.

The Bank’s decision disappointed market analysts, with Yarkin Cebeci, economist at JPMorgan, stating:

“The latest hike – albeit by stealth – should still help the inflation outlook. However, a covert hike is surely not as effective as a blunt one. Among other things, it raises questions on the commitment of policymakers on prudent policies in a consistent way. The MPC decision was a clear disappointment for the markets and the price action shows this.”

Gökçe Çelik, senior CEE economist at UniCredit, added:

“The MPC also hinted that it will continue to use liquidity measures until the inflation outlook improves. This latter statement implies that the CBRT sees a need for additional tightening in financial conditions, which makes their reason for leaving the policy rate unchanged harder to understand, in our view. […] [The Bank’s] refraining from adjusting its policy and overnight lending rate accordingly sends a negative signal with regard to its commitment to fighting the deterioration in the inflation outlook, in particular, and the credibility of recent normalization steps in economic policy, more broadly. This does not bode well for the TRY, which remains prone to depreciation pressure due to geopolitical risks and capital outflows.”

Free sample report

Access essential information in the shortest time possible. FocusEconomics provide hundreds of consensus forecast reports from the most reputable economic research authorities in the world.
Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest