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Taiwan Trade November 2023

Taiwan: Merchandise exports rebound in November

Merchandise exports increased 3.8% annually in November (October: -4.5% year-on-year). This was due to a 74% surge in IT exports, with other sectors declining. November’s outturn marked the strongest growth since July 2022. Meanwhile, merchandise imports plunged 14.8% in annual terms in November (October: -12.3% yoy), amid lower oil prices year on year.

As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 9.8 billion surplus in November (October 2023: USD 5.8 billion surplus; November 2022: USD 3.6 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend pointed up, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 74.3 billion surplus in November, compared to the USD 68.2 billion surplus in October.

The government expects a further export expansion in December, and our Consensus is for exports to grow in 2024, buoyed by the likely exhaustion of the global electronics destocking cycle and burgeoning demand for AI applications, which will in turn support semiconductor demand. However, higher-for-longer interest rates in developed markets and shaky economic activity in China pose downside risks.

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