La sagrada familia in Spain

Spain Economic Forecast

Spain Economic Outlook

The economy continued to expand in the first quarter of this year. Strong external demand and rebounding investment activity underpinned the economy; the former came on the back of a turnaround in all subcomponents while the latter benefited from a strong tourism sector—partially thanks to the Easter season. On the flipside, household spending fell again, buffeted by elevated core inflation and rising interest rates. Meanwhile, ahead of 28 May local elections, the government recently approved a law capping rent increases and introducing rent controls in high-demand areas—a decision that might hit real estate investment and exacerbate housing shortages. Moreover, in a further vote-catching move, the administration announced plans to revamp and build over 100,000 social dwellings, though the feasibility of the plans has been called into question.

Spain Inflation

Harmonized inflation fell to 3.1% in March from February’s 6.0%, while core inflation receded just 0.1 percentage points from February’s record high. Price pressures should ease further this year due to higher interest rates, weaker domestic demand and stabilizing commodity prices. Pre-election spending poses an upside risk. Commodity price swings are a factor to watch.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Spain from 2013 to 2022.

Spain Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 46.5 46.7 47.1 47.4 47.4
GDP (EUR bn) 1,162 1,204 1,246 1,118 1,207
GDP per capita (EUR) 24,982 25,763 26,441 23,608 25,461
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 4.3 3.6 3.5 -10.2 7.9
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.0 2.3 2.0 -11.3 5.5
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 3.3 3.0 1.7 -9.4 5.3
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.0 1.8 0.9 -12.4 6.0
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.0 2.3 1.9 3.5 2.9
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 6.8 6.3 4.5 -9.7 0.9
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 5.5 1.7 2.2 -19.9 14.4
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 6.8 3.9 1.3 -14.9 13.9
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 3.1 0.4 0.6 -9.5 7.3
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 0.7 0.8 2.4 -6.8 3.2
Home Prices Index (ann. var. %) 2.4 3.4 3.2 -1.1 2.1
Disposable Income (ann. var. %) 3.2 2.8 5.0 -2.0 3.1
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 17.2 15.3 14.1 15.5 14.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.1 -2.6 -3.1 -10.1 -6.9
Public Debt (% of GDP) 101.8 100.4 98.2 120.4 118.3
Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, eop) 1.2 1.2 0.8 -0.6 6.6
Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, aop) 2.0 1.7 0.8 -0.3 3.0
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, aop) 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 4.4 3.0 -0.4 -4.3 17.3
ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
3-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) -0.33 -0.31 -0.38 -0.55 -0.57
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 1.55 1.42 0.45 0.04 0.56
Stock Market (var. of IBEX 35 %) 7.4 -15.0 11.8 -15.5 7.9
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.20 1.14 1.12 1.22 1.14
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.13 1.18 1.12 1.14 1.18
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 32.2 22.6 26.2 6.8 11.5
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 2.8 1.9 2.1 0.6 1.0
Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) -24.7 -33.8 -32.0 -13.4 -26.2
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) 34.9 50.3 15.5 4.6 8.6

Free Sample Report

Interested in Spain economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest