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Serbia Inflation August 2021

Serbia: Inflation comes in at highest level since September 2013 in August

Consumer prices increased 0.88% from the previous month in August, picking up from the 0.21% increase seen in July. August’s figure was the highest reading since April. The reading was primarily due to rising prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages. In addition, price pressures for housing and utilities grew at a quicker rate.

Inflation came in at 4.3% in August, which was up from July’s 3.3%. August’s result was the highest inflation rate since September 2013 and overshot market analysts’ expectations of a milder 3.3% increase. Meanwhile, the trend pointed up mildly, with annual average inflation coming in at 2.4% in August (July: 2.2%). Lastly, harmonized inflation rose to 4.2% in August, from July’s 3.1%.

Mate Jelic, analyst at Erste Bank, added:

“Looking ahead, inflation is likely to move above the middle of the target band until the end of Q1 2022, after which we forecast a steady inflation pattern below, but close to 3.0%. We revised our forecast in August and now see average inflation at 3.0% yoy, both in this year and next. The risks to our forecast are still tilted to the upside due to intensified bottlenecks in global supply chains, but also a possible rise in food prices due to relative drought conditions this year.”

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