Russia: Inflation rises in October
Inflation increased to 6.7% in October, following September’s 6.0%. October’s figure marked the highest inflation rate since February. The upturn was broad-based with prices for food goods, non-food items and services all accelerating at the outset of Q4.
Annual average inflation fell to 6.5% in October (September: 7.0%). Meanwhile, core inflation rose to 5.5% in October, from the previous month’s 4.6%.
Lastly, consumer prices rose 0.83% in October over the previous month, broadly unchanged from September’s 0.87% increase.
Commenting on the inflationary outlook and monetary policy backdrop, analysts at Goldman Sachs said:
“In response to the inflationary pressures, the CBR has hiked rates by 750bp to +15.0% since July and we think it will hike its key policy rate by a final 100bp in December, with risks of the cycle extending further. After this, policy rates will remain higher-for-longer […] (CBR policy has generally surprised us and consensus on the hawkish side). Given that our inflation forecast is meaningfully above that of the CBR, we think the CBR will only begin a gradual cutting cycle in Q3 and our rate forecasts are at or above the upper bound of the CBR’s medium-term forecasts.”