Romania: September's inflation rate comes in at highest level since September 2003

Inflation came in at 15.9% in September, up from August’s 15.3%. September's result marked the highest inflation rate since September 2003. The pick-up was largely driven by rebounding price pressures for non-food goods. Additionally, price pressures for food items increased at a faster pace.

Annual average inflation rose to 11.7% in September (August: 10.9%).

Lastly, consumer prices rose a seasonally adjusted 1.33% over the previous month in September, accelerating from the 0.56% increase seen in August. September's uptick was the highest reading since April.

On the outlook for inflation and monetary policy implications, Vlad Ionita, analyst at Erste Bank, commented:

“There are way too many uncertainties to call a peak in inflation right now. The only clear thing is that inflation above 15.0% should linger for a while and we expect values above this level until the end of the first quarter of 2023. […] The latest inflation numbers put additional pressure on the NBR not to end its rate hiking cycle in sync with other CEE central banks.”

Our panelists see inflation averaging 13.0% in 2022, whichis up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 8.3% in 2023.