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Poland Inflation January 2024

Poland: Inflation falls to over two-year low in January

Inflation came in at 3.9% in January, which was down from December’s 6.2%. January’s figure marked the weakest inflation rate since March 2021. Looking at the details of the release, prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages increased at a weaker pace in January, while prices for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels were steady. Meanwhile, transportation prices shrunk at a quicker pace.

Annual average inflation fell to 10.5% in January (December: 11.6%).

Finally, consumer prices rose 0.40% over the previous month in January, picking up from December’s 0.10% increase.

Commenting on the outlook, analysts at ING stated:

“Should the ‘inflationary overhang’ associated with frozen electricity and gas for households materialise in the second half of the year, the inflation outlook for 2025 would clearly improve. That would increase the chances of inflation moving towards the NBP’s target over the medium term and may make some room for monetary easing, as suggested by some MPC members. Given the uncertainty over discretionary decisions, our baseline scenario currently assumes that interest rates will remain unchanged until the end of 2024.”

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