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Poland Industry September 2021

Poland: Industrial output slows in September

Industrial output increased 8.8% compared to the same month a year earlier in September, which followed August’s 13.0% increase. The outturn marked the lowest reading since February. Looking at the details of the release, manufacturing output slowed, dragging on overall growth. Meanwhile, electricity, gas and utilities production expanded, as did mining output.

On a monthly basis, industrial output rose 0.9% in seasonally-adjusted terms in September, rebounding from August’s 0.3% fall and marked the best result since March. Meanwhile, the trend improved modestly, with the annual average growth of industrial production coming in at plus 13.6% in September, up from August’s 13.3%.

Regarding the outlook, Malgorzata Krzywicka, analyst at Erste Bank, commented:

“In coming months industrial production growth should remain solid but supply-side issues and rising prices might weigh on the performance of some of the sectors. […] Based on available real economy data Q3 2021 GDP growth should normalize and could land at around 4.5% yoy but a negative surprise might come from net export as the trade surplus continues to melt.”

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