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Poland Industry December 2021

Poland: Industrial output rises at fastest pace in six months in December

Industrial output grew 16.7% in year-on-year terms in December, which followed November’s 14.8% increase. December’s figure marked the strongest rise since June. Looking at the details of the release, mining and quarrying production fell in December, while manufacturing output climbed at a faster pace. Meanwhile, electricity, gas and utilities production also increased at a stronger pace.

On a seasonally-adjusted monthly basis, industrial production fell 0.2% in December (November: +6.1% mom). Meanwhile, annual average industrial production growth rose to 15.3% in December (November: +14.9%), signaling an improving trend in the industrial sector.

Commenting on the result, Malgorzata Krzywicka, analyst at Erste Bank, noted:

“The post-pandemic recovery pushed the Polish industry to a new level that is well above the pre-crisis trajectory. In our view, part of such strong increase especially at the end of last year can be attributed to pilling up of inventories by the companies as producers are concerned over rising prices. […] However based on the data that are so far available for the last quarter of 2021, 4Q21 GDP growth dynamics will likely land at about 6.8% yoy and thus pose some risks to the upside to our FY21 growth forecast at 5.5%.”

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