Poland GDP Q4 2016

Poland

Poland: Growth picks up in Q4

February 28, 2017

Poland’s economy gained steam in the fourth quarter amid a pick-up in exports and private consumption. According to more complete data released by the Central Statistical Office of Poland on 28 February, GDP expanded 2.7% in Q4 over the same period of 2015. The result was above Q3’s 2.5% increase, which had marked the worst result since Q3 2013. The figure matched the preliminary estimate.

Taking a look at the details on the domestic side of the economy, private consumption picked up to a multi-year high, growing 4.2%. A tightening labor market and fiscal stimulus measures have acted as tailwinds to household spending. Meanwhile, the contraction in fixed investment moderated slightly from Q3’s 7.7% plunge, but was still sharp at 5.8%. Reduced EU development funds have caused a sharp slowdown in public investment this year, while heightened uncertainty is likely discouraging firms from spending. Meanwhile, government spending fell from Q3’s 4.9% increase to a 2.7% expansion.

The external sector added to GDP growth in Q4 as exports picked up pace. Exports grew 8.6% aided by recovering external demand. Import growth also gained steam, coming in at 8.5% after growing 7.8% in Q3.

The consumption boom seen in Q4 is likely to persist thanks to fiscal easing measures and a tight labor market. This, combined with a rebound in investment, should allow the economy to gain steam this year.

After a 2.8% expansion in 2016, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that the economy will grow 3.1% in 2017, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2018, panelists foresee the economy growing 3.3%.


Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Poland GDP Q4 2016

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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