Poland: GDP records best result since Q4 2022 in Q3
Economic growth bounced back in the third quarter, with GDP increasing 0.5% on an annual basis (Q2: -0.6% year on year). Q3’s reading marked the best result since Q4 2022. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth gained traction, rising to 1.5% in Q3 from the previous period’s 0.3% growth. Q3’s reading marked the best result since Q1 2022.
Household spending bounced back, growing 0.8% yoy in the third quarter, which marked the best reading since Q4 2022 (Q2: -2.8% yoy), as consumers benefited from easing price pressures and a resilient labor market. Meanwhile, government spending growth accelerated to 3.3% in Q3 (Q2: +2.2% yoy). Fixed investment increased 7.2% in Q3, down from a 10.5% increase in Q2, while destocking had a significant negative impact on GDP, subtracting 7.7 percentage points from growth.
On the external front, exports of goods and services slid at a more pronounced pace of 11.0% in Q3 (Q2: -3.2% yoy), weighed down by Germany’s ailing economy. In addition, imports of goods and services declined at a much quicker pace of 20.3% in Q3 (Q2: -6.8% yoy).
The economy will gain speed in 2024 from this year. Falling inflation and interest rates and a rebound in industrial output triggered by Germany’s recovery will boost activity. The increased likelihood of an agreement on the disbursement of EU funds in the wake of October’s election is an upside risk, while additional spillover from the Russia-Ukraine war is a downside risk.
Commenting on the outlook, ING’s Rafal Benecki stated:
“The recovery should continue in Q4 2023, but its pace remains slow. […] We expect GDP growth to accelerate to around 2% yoy in 4Q23 and see economic growth for the whole of 2023 at 0.4% yoy. We anticipate a more pronounced acceleration next year, mainly due to a further recovery in private consumption. Next year, we forecast GDP growth at 3%.”