Macchu Picchu Peru

Peru Economic Activity October 2020

Peru: Economic activity records softest contraction since February in October

Economic activity dropped 3.8% year-on-year in October (September: -7.0% yoy). October’s figure marked the best result since February. The reading reflected a broad-based improvement, with activity in the commerce, agricultural and construction sub-sectors all improving in October. Lastly, activity in the manufacturing, and mining and hydrocarbons sectors fell at softer rates than in the previous month.

On a monthly basis, economic activity increased 4.4% in October, which was notably better than September’s 1.9% expansion. Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the annual average variation of economic activity coming in at minus 10.6%, down from September’s minus 10.1% reading.

Looking ahead, José Luis Nolazco, an economist at Credicorp Capital, sees a strong rebound in activity in 2021 tempered somewhat by heightened uncertainty:

“GDP is set to bounce between 9% and 12% in 2021. On the external side, terms of trade currently stand at a 92-month high (copper is almost at an 8-year high) and capital flows to emerging markets have returned. On the local side, the rebound of activity has been faster than initially anticipated, while broadly expansionary monetary and fiscal policies will remain. However, political, social and health uncertainty will continue to play an important role. GDP would bounce 15% in 2021 if there were no such fog.”

Free sample report

Access essential information in the shortest time possible. FocusEconomics provide hundreds of consensus forecast reports from the most reputable economic research authorities in the world.
Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest