Peru Economic Activity September 2021

Peru

Peru: Economic activity grows for seventh month running in September

November 18, 2021

Economic activity grew 9.7% year-on-year in September, which was a slight moderation from August’s 11.8% increase. September’s result marked the lowest reading since February, but nevertheless still constituted a seventh consecutive month of growth in activity. Moreover, the economy grew around 3.0% compared with September 2019, hinting at slowly-improving underlying dynamics. Looking at the breakdown by sector, retail growth slowed once again in September, while the construction sector also lost some momentum. In contrast, activity in the agricultural sector rose at a stronger rate, while mining and hydrocarbons production also grew strongly.

On a monthly basis, economic activity rose at a softer pace of 0.8% in September (August: +0.9% mom), the lowest result since February. Meanwhile, the trend improved sizably, with the annual average growth of economic activity coming in at 11.8% in September, up from August’s 10.3% reading.

Looking ahead, October is likely to see another reasonable rise in activity, although the favorable base effect will once again reduce. Meanwhile, continuing political uncertainty, rising inflation and tightening monetary policy will all likely weigh on activity during the month.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists estimate that GDP will expand 3.3% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection, and grow 3.2% in 2023.


Author:, Economist

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Peru Economic Activity September 2021

Note: Year-on-year changes of economic activity and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Peru National Statistical Institute (INEI) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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