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Peru Economic Activity September 2023

Peru: Economic activity falls at sharper pace in September

Economic activity fell 1.3% year on year in September (August: -0.5% yoy). The figure was largely due to a deterioration in the commerce sector. In addition, the agricultural sector fell notably. Lastly, activity in the manufacturing sector decreased at a sharper rate, while mining and hydrocarbons output rose.

On a monthly basis, economic activity was flat in September, which was below August’s 0.8% expansion. Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the annual average variation of economic activity coming in at a two-year low of 0.0% in September, down from August’s plus 0.3% reading.

Commenting on the outlook, analysts at Itau stated:

“Our 2023 GDP growth forecast of 0.2% has a downward bias given a weaker than expected Q3 2023. Activity will likely recover in Q4 2023, although at a moderate pace. Authorities expect a moderate/strong el Niño scenario for 1Q24 which will likely slow the expected recovery, resulting in a 3.0% growth rate for the year.”

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