Norway: Mainland economic growth steady in Q3; Total GDP flatlines
The total economy flatlined in the third quarter of 2019 in quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted terms, after expanding a downwardly revised 0.2% in Q2 (previous reported: +0.3% quarter-on-quarter). The mainland economy—which excludes petroleum activities and related ocean transport—increased 0.7% in Q3, matching the second quarter’s expansion. In annual terms, the economy expanded 1.3% in Q3, rebounding from the second quarter’s 0.7% contraction, while the mainland economy grew 3.7% in Q3, up from 0.3% in Q2.
In quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted terms, exports fell at a sharper pace of 2.2% in the third quarter, largely due to a decline in exports of ships, oil platforms and aircrafts, and crude oil and natural gas (Q2: -0.3% qoq). Meanwhile, import growth eased to 1.2% in Q3 from the second quarter’s 1.5% expansion. As a result, the external sector subtracted 1.2 percentage points from economic growth in Q3, down from the 0.6 percentage points subtraction in Q2.
On the domestic front, private consumption rose 0.4% in Q3, unchanged from the second quarter. Moreover, government consumption was also steady in the third quarter at Q2’s 0.9% expansion. For its part, fixed capital formation jumped 4.8% in Q3, up from 3.1% in Q2.
Looking to 2020, economic growth should gain momentum as strong wage growth and a tighter labor market benefit household spending. Meanwhile, increased oil and gas extraction from the Johan Sverdrup offshore oil platform, which came online in Q4 this year, should propel industrial production.