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Mexico GDP Q3 2019

Mexico: Economy contracts again in Q3

A comprehensive GDP estimate released by the Statistical Institute (INEGI) on 25 November showed that output declined 0.3% on an annual basis in the third quarter, slightly below that of the preliminary estimate (previously reported: -0.4% year-on-year) and marking the second consecutive quarter of contraction (Q2: -1.0% yoy). Meanwhile, output flatlined in seasonally-adjusted, quarter-on-quarter terms in Q3, revised down from the 0.1% expansion of the flash estimate (Q2: -0.1% quarter-on-quarter; seasonally adjusted). Notably, the GDP report also included revisions to previous data, which revealed that the economy contracted on a quarterly basis in the three quarters prior to Q3, indicating it had entered a technical recession. In cumulative terms, however, the data shows a stagnating economy so far this year.

The more moderate slump in Q3 reflected an improvement in performance across the major sectors. Primary-sector activity rebounded strongly in the quarter, growing at the fastest pace in five years on the back of buoyant agricultural output (Q3: +5.4% yoy; Q2: -0.2% yoy). Similarly, activity in the services sector bounced back to growth in Q3, albeit only slightly, driven in large part by an upbeat information and communications sub-sector (Q3: +0.1% yoy; Q2: -0.1% yoy). Lastly, industrial-sector output fell for the fourth consecutive quarter, though to a lesser degree than in Q2, reflecting the still-ailing mining and construction sub-sectors (Q3: -1.4% yoy; Q2: -3.0% yoy).

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