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Italy Industrial production November 2023

Italy: Industrial output contracts at sharpest pace since April in November

Industrial output fell 1.5% in month-on-month seasonally adjusted terms in November, which was a larger contraction than October’s 0.2% decrease. The result marked the worst reading since April. Looking at the details of the release, November’s drop was largely driven by a fall in manufacturing output. In addition, production contracted in both the mining and quarrying, and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning sub-sectors.

On an annual basis, factory output declined 2.9% in November, which was below October’s 1.2% fall. Meanwhile, the trend improved slightly, with the annual average variation of industrial production coming in at minus 2.4% in November, up from October’s minus 2.5% reading.

Commenting on the release, Paolo Pizzoli, senior economist at ING, stated:

“As far as growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 is concerned, today’s release confirms our view that industry should act as a drag. Over the September-November period, industrial production contracted by 0.8% over the previous quarter; we would need a very strong number in December for industry to act as a growth driver. We therefore confirm our forecast of a minor negative GDP contraction in the fourth quarter, which would simply confirm that the Italian economy ended the year in stagnation mode.”

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