Guatemala Economic Activity September 2021

Guatemala

Guatemala: Economic activity growth slows in September

November 18, 2021

Economic activity increased 6.3% year-on-year in September (August: +8.2% yoy). September's result marked the weakest reading since February, but the slowdown partly reflects a less supportive base effect as the economy returned to growth in the same month a year prior.

The print was driven by robust growth in the trade and repair of vehicles, manufacturing, real estate, and financial and insurance sectors.

While the print suggests that economic growth remained robust in the third quarter, the panorama darkened somewhat in the fourth quarter amid protests in October and November underlining social unrest. In mid-October, Congress declared a month-long siege in El Estor after civil war veterans stormed and lit on fire congressional offices. In mid-November, members of the Farmer Development Committee hindered road usage throughout the country amid blockages.

GDP is seen expanding 4.5% in 2022. For 2023, our panelists expect the economy to grow 3.6%.


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Guatemala Economic Activity September 2021 2

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of economic activity in %.
Source: Guatemala Central Bank and FocusEconomics calculations.


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