Germany: Cheaper oil finally reaches German consumers, driving inflation down

Consumer price rose 0.1% over the previous month in December, matching November’s figure. The print was driven by higher prices for services—such as train tickets, with the biggest price increase for local transport—, which was partly, but not entirely, offset by lower prices for goods—cheaper oil prices finally reached the German consumer, while consumers also benefitted from seasonal discounts on clothing and footwear.

Inflation dropped to 1.7% in December from 2.3% in November, the lowest reading since April 2018. Annual average inflation remained stable at November’s 1.9% in December, though. Harmonized inflation (HICP), meanwhile, moderated from 2.2% in November to 1.7% in December.

Germany Inflation Forecast

The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts panelists see CPI inflation averaging 1.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2020, our panel sees average inflation at 1.7%. In December, the Central Bank expected HICP inflation of 1.4% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020.