Germany: Industrial production growth eases in May
On a seasonally-adjusted monthly basis, industrial production rose 0.2% in May (April: +1.3% mom). The softer expansion reflected contractions in energy, intermediate and consumer goods production partially offsetting stronger output growth in capital goods and construction.
Industrial output fell 1.5% year on year in working-day adjusted terms in May (April: -2.5% yoy). Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the annual average growth of industrial production coming in at 0.3% in May, from April’s 1.6% reading.
Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, commented:
“A small increase in industrial production in May is too little to take away our recession fears for the German economy. […] Currently, in the base case scenario with continuing supply chain frictions, uncertainty and high or higher energy and commodity prices as a result of the ongoing war in Ukraine, the German economy will be pushed into a technical recession. […] A scarce silver lining – not only for the German industry but for the entire economy – is the green transition and the need for investment. Actually, these investments are urgently needed as the three pillars of Germany’s successful economic business model – exports, industry and energy – have become Germany’s Achilles’ heel.”