Finland skyline

Finland Economic Forecast

Finland Economic Outlook

After the economy shrank in Q4 due to depressed domestic demand, quarter-on-quarter GDP likely contracted for the third consecutive quarter in Q1 2023. On average, in January–February, economic activity declined on a calendar-adjusted monthly basis, with all sectors of the economy shrinking. Additionally, merchandise exports growth in January–February softened from the prior quarter amid subdued external demand. The European Central Bank’s interest rate hikes in February–March likely also constrained activity. More positively, month-on-month retail sales rebounded on average in the first two months of the quarter compared to Q4, and the unemployment rate declined steadily through March. This, coupled with cooling price pressures throughout the quarter, bodes well for household spending. In other news, on 4 April, Finland became the 31st member of NATO.

Finland Inflation

In March, harmonized inflation waned to 6.7% from February’s 7.9%: Lower energy prices softened price pressures for housing and utilizes, and transport. Our panel sees the disinflationary trend continuing this year on higher interest rates, softer commodity prices and depressed domestic demand. That said, average inflation will remain above the ECB target of 2.0% this year.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Finland from 2013 to 2022.

Finland Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
GDP (EUR bn) 226 233 240 238 251
GDP per capita (EUR) 41,123 42,348 43,468 43,084 45,283
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 4.0 3.2 2.7 -0.8 5.3
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.2 1.1 1.2 -2.4 3.0
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 1.7 2.7 -0.4 -1.7 3.0
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.8 1.7 0.7 -3.8 3.6
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.2 1.9 2.0 1.2 3.9
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 4.8 3.6 -1.5 -1.0 0.9
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 8.8 1.5 6.7 -7.8 6.0
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 4.3 5.7 2.4 -6.2 6.0
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 3.4 3.3 1.6 -3.2 4.2
Wages (ann. var. %) 0.2 1.7 2.1 1.9 2.4
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 9.0 5.9 6.5 8.2 7.2
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 8.7 7.4 6.7 7.8 7.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -0.7 -0.9 -0.9 -5.6 -2.8
Public Debt (% of GDP) 66.0 64.8 64.9 74.7 72.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.2 3.5
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.3 2.2
Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, eop) 0.5 1.3 1.1 0.2 3.2
Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, aop) 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.4 2.1
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 4.0 4.8 0.4 -4.6 12.7
ECB Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
3-Month EURIBOR (%, eop) -0.33 -0.31 -0.38 -0.55 -0.57
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 0.59 0.54 0.05 -0.40 0.07
Stock Market (var. of OMXH25 %) 6.5 -5.9 14.6 8.6 21.5
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, eop) 1.20 1.14 1.12 1.22 1.14
Exchange Rate (USD per EUR, aop) 1.13 1.18 1.12 1.14 1.18
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -1.8 -4.3 -0.7 1.3 1.2
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.8 -1.8 -0.3 0.6 0.5
Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) 1.5 0.3 2.3 2.7 2.3
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) 2.4 -1.9 12.0 -1.2 8.3

Free Sample Report

Interested in Finland economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest