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Estonia Inflation October 2023

Estonia: Harmonized inflation rises in October

Harmonized inflation came in at 5.0% in October, up from September’s 3.9%. The reading was largely due to a more moderate increase in prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages. In addition, price pressures for transportation dropped at a quicker rate. Moreover, prices for recreation grew at a more subdued pace.

Annual average harmonized inflation fell to 11.6% in October (September: 13.0%). Meanwhile, consumer price inflation rose to 4.9% in October, from the previous month’s 4.2%.

Lastly, harmonized consumer prices dropped 0.48% over the previous month in October, a sharper drop than September’s 0.06% fall. October’s result marked the weakest reading since July.

Analysts at the EIU commented on the outlook:

“In 2024 we forecast that inflation will fall to an average of 3.1%, close to the Euro zone inflation target of 2%. […] However, temporary price spikes cannot be excluded as global energy markets, especially for oil, remain tight. The suspension of gas flows through the Balticconnector from early October will not drastically affect energy prices in the country, but further disruption of Baltic Sea LNG supply routes would expose Estonia to more significant price volatility.”

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