Ecuador Economic Activity June 2021

Ecuador

Ecuador: Economic activity growth moderates in June but remains solid

August 12, 2021

Economic activity grew 15.9% in annual terms in June, easing from May’s 29.0% surge, largely due to a less favorable base effect. June’s result was likely weighed on by declining oil output in the same month—the country’s key export.

Meanwhile, the trend improved notably, with the annual average variation of economic activity coming in at 5.5%, up from May’s 2.9%.

Analysts at the EIU added:

“We expect real GDP to recover only modestly in 2021, expanding by just 2.4%. This reflects negative base effects (subdued growth in the fourth quarter of 2020 produced a mildly negative statistical carryover effect) and a restrained recovery in private consumption, hampered by a lack of fiscal support for consumers amid the Covid-19 crisis and a slow improvement in labour market conditions. Moreover, economic and political uncertainties will have dampened investment in the election-dominated first half of the year.”

LatinFocus panelists project GDP to grow 3.4% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month. For 2022, the panel sees GDP growth at 2.9%.


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Ecuador Economic Activity June 2021

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of economic activity index in %.
Source: Ecuador Central Bank and FocusEconomics calculations.


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