Denmark Economic Forecast

Denmark Economic Outlook

March 26, 2019

The Danish economy appears to be slowing in the first quarter of the year. Business confidence in the industrial sector continued its downward trend in February, and although the manufacturing PMI recovered in the same month—spurred by a surge in employment and robust production—the average of the quarter remains below that seen in Q4. Moreover, subdued consumer confidence throughout the quarter could suggest weaker household spending, despite a vibrant labor market and sustained wage growth. On a brighter note, merchandise exports rebounded in January from December’s fall. The less upbeat narrative so far in Q1 comes on the heels of the fourth quarter’s solid turnout which was driven by a recovery in household consumption and a positive contribution by the external sector.

Denmark Economic Growth

The economy is projected to strengthen this year, powered by the external sector, in part thanks to a low base effect. Moreover, a buoyant labor market and wage gains should keep household spending healthy. However, external downside risks related to ongoing trade tensions, a global economic slowdown and a possible hard Brexit all threaten export prospects. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 1.8% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.6% in 2020.

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Denmark Facts

Bond Yield0.18-1.54 %Apr 22
Exchange Rate6.63-0.57 %Apr 22
Stock Market1,006-0.39 %Apr 17

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