Denmark Economic Forecast

Denmark Economic Outlook

September 28, 2021

A second reading of national accounts data showed that GDP rose at a faster-than-initially-estimated pace in Q2, returning the economy to pre-pandemic levels. A strong bounce-back in private consumption led the upturn, aided by a falling unemployment rate and the lifting of restrictions. However, the external sector dragged on the overall reading. Momentum spilled over into Q3: In July, industrial output rebounded in monthly terms and retail sales were upbeat. Moreover, the unemployment rate fell to an over 12-year low in July, pushing up consumer confidence, which hit an over three-year high in September. Additionally, the rapid vaccine rollout allowed authorities to fully reopen the economy—except some entry restrictions—on 10 September. Lastly, on 30 August, authorities tabled the 2022 draft budget, which focuses on green investment and avoiding an overheated economy, and sees a deficit of 0.2% of GDP.

Denmark Economic Growth

The economy is seen expanding at the sharpest rate in over ten years in 2021, while growth will remain robust in 2022. A strong improvement in private consumption and investment will bolster domestic demand, while the external sector should also contribute to growth. Uncertainty over new Covid-19 strains clouds the outlook, however. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy growing 3.3% in 2021 and 3.1% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection.

Denmark Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)5.75.75.75.85.8
GDP per capita (USD)53,73755,15258,04060,88061,008
GDP (USD bn)304315334352354
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.33.32.02.42.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.32.41.62.72.2
Investment (annual variation in %)5.57.93.05.43.4
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)3.64.14.62.41.6
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)4.63.74.33.60.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.14.22.02.02.7
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)1.01.70.31.70.6
Unemployment Rate4.54.14.23.73.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.20.11.80.73.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)39.837.235.833.933.2
Money (annual variation in %)10.37.55.24.16.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.40.51.00.80.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.50.31.10.80.8
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)0.60.01.41.20.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.050.050.050.050.05
Stock Market (annual variation in %)27.0-9.317.8-7.221.9
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)7.467.437.447.477.47
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)7.467.457.447.457.47
Current Account (% of GDP)8.37.77.77.07.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)25.124.325.724.727.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)9.310.39.36.912.7

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Denmark Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield-0.15-1.54 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate6.66-0.57 %Jan 01

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