Denmark Economic Forecast

Denmark Economic Outlook

November 20, 2018

The economy performed well in the third quarter, with preliminary GDP data suggesting growth was driven by manufacturing—which supported stronger industrial production readings in the quarter—and construction. Moreover, low unemployment should have boosted private consumption. The final quarter began in mixed fashion: While the manufacturing PMI soared in October due to strong growth in production and new orders, consumer and business confidence both dimmed in the same month, which could soften consumer spending and investment. To address emerging labor shortages, in October the government announced a plan designed to attract employees from abroad. However, the plan failed to achieve sufficient parliamentary support, with parties objecting to the proposal of reducing the minimum wage requirement for foreign workers. As a result, difficulty attracting staff could restrain GDP growth going forward.

Denmark Economic Growth

Healthy macroeconomic fundamentals will likely support growth in 2019. Household spending should be robust, buoyed by a solid labor market, faster wage growth and accommodative monetary conditions. External downside risks to the outlook include global trade protectionism and uncertainty surrounding Brexit negotiations. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to increase 1.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 1.6% in 2020.

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Denmark Facts

Bond Yield0.26-1.54 %Dec 12
Exchange Rate6.57-0.57 %Dec 12
Stock Market926-0.39 %Dec 12

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