Denmark Economic Forecast

Denmark Economic Outlook

October 27, 2020

The economy likely recovered somewhat in Q3, after Q2’s pandemic-induced contraction. The unemployment rate eased further in August from May’s peak, boding well for household spending. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI remained in expansionary territory throughout the quarter, increasing notably in September. However, both consumer and business sentiment turned more pessimistic in September, likely impacted by a surge in new Covid-19 cases, which led to the announcement of new restrictions midway through the month. The restrictions were extended in early October until the end of the month, which could weigh on momentum in Q4. As such, consumer sentiment remained pessimistic in October, albeit improving slightly. Meanwhile, on 31 August the government tabled the 2021 draft budget, which focuses on safeguarding employment and local businesses, mitigating the fallout from the pandemic.

Denmark Economic Growth

In 2021, the economy is expected to grow strongly after this year’s significant downturn caused by the pandemic. Growth will be supported by the reopening of economies globally and recovering domestic demand, as well as the resumption of international travel. However, uncertainty over the evolution of the pandemic still lingers, clouding the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy growing 3.6% in 2021, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s projection, and 2.6% in 2022.

Denmark Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)5.75.75.75.85.8
GDP per capita (USD)53,73755,15258,04060,88061,008
GDP (USD bn)304315334352354
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.33.32.02.42.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.32.41.62.72.2
Investment (annual variation in %)5.57.93.05.43.4
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)3.64.14.62.41.6
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)4.63.74.33.60.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.14.22.02.02.7
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)1.01.70.31.70.6
Unemployment Rate4.54.14.23.73.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.20.11.80.73.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)39.837.235.833.933.2
Money (annual variation in %)10.37.55.24.16.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.40.51.00.80.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.50.31.10.80.8
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)0.60.01.41.20.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.050.050.050.050.05
Stock Market (annual variation in %)27.0-9.317.8-7.221.9
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)7.467.437.447.477.47
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)7.467.457.447.457.47
Current Account (% of GDP)8.37.77.77.07.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)25.124.325.724.727.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)9.310.39.36.912.7

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Denmark Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield-0.15-1.54 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate6.66-0.57 %Jan 01

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