Economic Growth in Denmark
The Danish economy recorded an average growth rate of 2.1% in the decade to 2022. In 2022, real GDP growth was 2.7%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Denmark GDP Chart
Denmark GDP Data
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.7 | -1.8 | 7.4 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
GDP (USD bn) | 345 | 356 | 408 | 402 | 407 |
GDP (EUR bn) | 309 | 312 | 345 | 382 | 376 |
GDP (DKK bn) | 2,304 | 2,327 | 2,568 | 2,844 | 2,805 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.7 | 1.0 | 10.4 | 10.8 | -1.4 |
GDP records sharpest contraction since Q1 2022 in the first quarter
A second national accounts release showed that GDP dropped 1.4% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in the first quarter, below the downwardly revised 1.7% expansion tallied in the fourth quarter of last year. The downturn was the worst in two years, despite coming in above the preliminary estimate of minus 1.8%. Meanwhile, on an annual basis, economic growth lost steam, cooling to 1.4% in Q1, following the previous quarter's upwardly revised 4.9% expansion. Despite slowing down, Q1’s result was a notable improvement from the preliminary estimate of a 0.2% increase.
The quarterly downturn reflected deteriorations in household consumption and exports. Domestically, private consumption worsened, contracting 0.2% seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter in Q1 from a 1.5% expansion in Q4. A stronger increase in both employment and total worked hours than in Q4 likely prevented a steeper fall. Similarly, while average inflation doubled from Q4 in Q1, it was over five times lower than annual nominal wage growth, supporting the ongoing recovery in purchasing power. Meanwhile, government consumption rebounded, growing 1.1% in Q1 (Q4: -0.9% s.a. qoq). Similarly, fixed investment also bounced back, growing 1.0% in Q1, contrasting the 9.9% contraction in the prior quarter. Turning to the external sector, exports of goods and services contracted 4.6% in Q1 (Q4: +6.8% s.a. qoq), marking the worst reading since Q2 2020. Conversely, imports of goods and services fell at a more moderate rate of 0.1% in Q1 (Q4: -1.1% s.a. qoq).
Our Consensus is for GDP to have rebounded in sequential terms in the second quarter. Moving to H2, our panelists anticipate quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to remain roughly stable from Q2. The recent drop in inflation and interest rates will support consumer spending, as should a recovery in house prices due to their positive impact on household wealth.
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Danish GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 18 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Danish GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Danish GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Danish GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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