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China PMI September 2019

China: Manufacturing PMI recovers slightly in September

The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) increased from 49.5% in August to September’s 49.8%. The print exceeded the 49.5% result expected by market analysts. Despite the increase, the index remained below the 50.0% threshold that separates contraction from expansion in the manufacturing sector for the fifth month in a row.

The slight improvement in September was due to a rebound in new orders and stronger growth in total output. Solid demand prompted job creation to decline at a softer rate in September as well as boosted purchasing activity. Against a backdrop of escalating trade tensions between China and the United States, export orders remained below the 50.0% threshold for the 16th consecutive month. Moreover, input prices—a reliable leading indicator for inflation—jumped strongly in September, likely reflecting the recent increase in some key commodity prices such as oil.

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