Brazil Inflation September 2016


Brazil: Inflation falls to over one-year low in September

October 7, 2016

Consumer prices in September increased 0.08% over the previous month, the lowest rise since July 2014. The print was below the 0.44% increase recorded in August and undershot market analysts’ expectations of a 0.18% rise. The reduction in price pressures was due to an almost across-the-board slowdown with only housing, clothing and communication showing faster growth in prices. In particular, lower prices were recorded for food in September, contributing to the subdued print.

Inflation fell in September to a 16-month low of 8.5% from August’s 9.0%. Inflation has fallen notably this year, paving the way for a cut in the Central Bank’s SELIC interest rate to support an economic recovery. Despite the gains made, inflation still remains far above the Central Bank’s tolerance margin of plus/minus 2.0 percentage points around 4.5%.

Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see inflation closing 2016 at 7.3%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel expects inflation of 5.1%.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Brazil Inflation Chart

Brazil Inflation September 2016

Note: Annual and monthly var. of IPCA consumer price index in %.
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

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