Argentina: Inflation drops to lowest level since November 2023 in October
Inflation drops to lowest level since November 2023 in October
Latest reading:
Latest reading: Inflation dropped to 193.0% in October, below September’s 209.0%. October’s result represented the weakest inflation rate since November 2023 and was the sixth straight month of disinflation. The moderation was broad-based, with lower price pressures recorded for transportation, food and non-alcoholic beverages, restaurants and hotels, and housing and utilities.
Annual average inflation fell to 242.3% in October (September: 243.5%).
Lastly, consumer prices rose 2.69% over the previous month in October, a smaller increase than September’s 3.47% rise and below market expectations. October’s result marked the weakest reading since November 2021.
Inflation dropped to 193.0% in October, below September’s 209.0%. October’s result represented the weakest inflation rate since November 2023 and was the sixth straight month of disinflation. The moderation was broad-based, with lower price pressures recorded for transportation, food and non-alcoholic beverages, restaurants and hotels, and housing and utilities.
Annual average inflation fell to 242.3% in October (September: 243.5%).
Lastly, consumer prices rose 2.69% over the previous month in October, a smaller increase than September’s 3.47% rise and below market expectations. October’s result marked the weakest reading since November 2021.
Outlook:
Outlook: Controlled currency depreciation, fiscal restraint and a tougher base of comparison have helped rein in inflation in recent months, and these same factors should continue to cause inflation to ease ahead.
Controlled currency depreciation, fiscal restraint and a tougher base of comparison have helped rein in inflation in recent months, and these same factors should continue to cause inflation to ease ahead.
Panelist insight:
Panelist insight: Goldman Sachs’ Sergio Armella said:
“Commenting on the data release, President Milei stated that if inflation remains stable for two more months, the exchange rate depreciation crawl will be lowered to 1% from the 2% that has been maintained since January. In our view, the recent interest rate cut to 35% by the Central Bank coupled with a deceleration of the FX crawl suggest that capital controls are likely to remain in place for a while longer. In our assessment, the currency has moved towards an overvaluation and tighter monetary policy and a more flexible exchange rate regime will be needed down the road to anchor the economy.”
Goldman Sachs’ Sergio Armella said:
“Commenting on the data release, President Milei stated that if inflation remains stable for two more months, the exchange rate depreciation crawl will be lowered to 1% from the 2% that has been maintained since January. In our view, the recent interest rate cut to 35% by the Central Bank coupled with a deceleration of the FX crawl suggest that capital controls are likely to remain in place for a while longer. In our assessment, the currency has moved towards an overvaluation and tighter monetary policy and a more flexible exchange rate regime will be needed down the road to anchor the economy.”