Argentina: Contraction in economic activity eases in January
March 29, 2019
The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) contracted 5.7% in annual terms in January, a somewhat softer drop than the revised 6.6% plunge recorded in December (previously reported: -7.0% year-on-year). The reading marked the ninth consecutive month of decline in year-on-year terms.
January’s relative improvement came mainly on the back of a faster expansion in the agricultural sector; a strong rebound in the fishing sector; and less sharp contractions in the manufacturing and construction sectors. However, the performances of the transport and communication, and the financial intermediation sectors were more negative than seen in the previous month.
A month-on-month comparison showed that economic activity increased 0.6% in seasonally-adjusted terms in January, following December’s revised 1.0% expansion (previously reported: +0.7% month-on-month). Meanwhile, the annual average variation in economic activity worsened from a 2.4% contraction in December to a 3.2% fall in January.
Argentina GDP Forecast
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast analysts see the economy contracting 0.5% in 2019, down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s estimate, before rebounding to 2.7% growth in 2020.