Angola Commodities April 2023

Angola: Cabinda prices increase in April

The average price for Cabinda oil rose to USD 85.7 per barrel (pb) in April from March’s 79.5 pb. This marked a 7.8% increase month on month. Meanwhile, prices were down 19.5 % year on year, reflecting last year’s large increase in prices at the outset of the war in Ukraine.

Oil prices increased in April as OPEC+ announced new production cuts starting in May. That said, resilient Russian oil exports in recent months limited price gains.

Turning to production, Cabinda oil output increased to 1.1 million barrels per day (mbpd) in April from March’s 0.95 mbpd. Output rose as maintenance work at offshore oil field Dalia concluded in late March. Average production among other OPEC+ members diverged; output rose in Saudi Arabia and Iran while it decreased in Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE.

Global oil prices are forecast to rise from current levels by year-end but are still seen below the highs recorded at the onset of the war in Ukraine. The reopening of China is set to buttress demand and will likely offset the negative impact of a global economic slowdown. On the supply side, new OPEC+ cuts effective from May onwards will exert upward pressures on crude prices. Key factors to watch include the health of the global economy, the evolution of OPEC+ cuts, the effect of sanctions on Russian exports, and the production levels of other oil producers. Turning to output, our panelists see Angolan oil production slightly below last year’s levels.

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