Angola Commodities February 2019

Angola: Cabinda crude oil prices jump in February

The average price of Angola’s Cabinda crude oil rose from USD 59.5 per barrel (pb) in January to 65.2 pb in February. February’s price was 9.7% above the average price observed in the previous month but was 0.5% lower in year-on-year terms.

The recovery in global oil prices strengthened in February, driven chiefly by tightening global supply. Following an earlier agreement, OPEC countries nearly delivered their part of the oil cut deal agreed in February, pushing up prices for oil and its derivatives. That said, Russia continued to lag behind its peers in implementing the cuts which, coupled with elevated oil production in the United States, prevented larger price gains.

Oil production in Angola edged down to a fresh over 12-year low of 1.51 million barrels per day (mbpd) in February, from 1.52 mbpd in January. Meanwhile, crude oil production among OPEC countries fell from 30.77 mbpd) in January to 30.55 mbpd in February, according to the latest OPEC report published on 14 March.

Looking forward, the outlook for oil prices is somewhat uncertain. The continuation of the current upward trend in prices is dubious over the medium-term, although price gains in the short term are likely. A potential global economic slowdown, partly due to the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China, remains a key risk to the outlook.

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