What to expect in Asia for 2017
Click on the image to open a larger version
ASEAN: Activity to moderate in 2017
This year, developments in the external sector and global politics will continue to influence ASEAN’s growth story. The policy decisions of a more protectionist U.S. under President Donald Trump have the potential to reverberate throughout the region. Trump’s decision on 23 January to pull out from the 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has created uncertainty over the future of the deal, which was seen as particularly beneficial for Vietnam’s economy. At this stage, it is unclear whether the agreement will move forward without the U.S. or if a new alliance could take its place. Brexit will also continue to play a role in ASEAN’s growth story as Singapore is particularly exposed to the potential fallout. Domestically, the timing of elections in Malaysia and Thailand will continue to be monitored, and early votes could take center stage.
Economic dynamics are expected to weaken slightly this year on slower growth in Singapore and the Philippines. The FocusEconomics panel sees the ASEAN region growing 4.7%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. Reduced headwinds from less monetary and fiscal stimulus will limit the economy’s momentum, but domestic demand should still remain solid overall. In 2018, the ASEAN economy is seen growing 4.9%.
This month’s 2017 growth forecast reflects a sizeable downward revision to Myanmar’s economic outlook. Estimates for 7 of the 10 economies in the region, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, were left unchanged. The only economies to see brighter prospects were Brunei and the Philippines.
Growth trends are expected to be divergent in the region. The Philippines and Vietnam will be among the top performers, with projected expansions of 6.4%. On the other side of the spectrum, Singapore will grow a slow 1.6% as the country is highly vulnerable to global events and is facing a cooling property market. Our panel of economists sees regional giant Indonesia expanding a healthy 5.2%, while Malaysia should grow 4.3%.
East & South Asia: Risks to 2017 economic outlook appear balanced
This year, the ESA economy is expected to perform at a similar pace to that of in 2016. China’s ongoing economic transition, which entails weaker but more sustainable growth, will be compensated for by stronger economic dynamics in most countries in the region. The main exception will be Korea, as the country is immersed in a deep political crisis that is gradually feeding into the real economy. However, more dark clouds are gathering on the horizon. Uncertainty about U.S. President Donald Trump’s economic and trade policies are the main downside risk to growth, in particular due to threats from the U.S. administration to impose a tariff on Chinese goods, which could cause a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Furthermore, a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States has the potential to heighten financial volatility in the region.
There are, however, some silver linings amidst the gloom. The expected fiscal stimulus plan in the United States, coupled with bold government support in China, bodes well for growth in the region. Moreover, the pick-up in inflation is expected to be limited, giving central banks in the region leeway to keep their monetary policies accommodative.
After expanding 6.1% in 2016, the ESA economy is seen growing at a broadly steady rate of 6.0% in 2017—unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2018, GDP is seen expanding at a slower pace of 5.8%.
This month’s outlook for 2017 reflects unchanged growth prospects for six of the nine economies surveyed, including the region’s powerhouse China. Projections for India, Korea and Sri Lanka were downgraded.
India and Bangladesh are expected to be the region’s fastest-growing economies in 2017 with increases of 7.4% and 6.8% respectively, followed by China, with a 6.4% expansion. At the other end of the spectrum, Hong Kong, Mongolia and Taiwan are projected to be the slowest-growing economies, with growth rates below 2.0%. Korea’s economy is seen expanding 2.4% in 2017.
5-year economic forecasts on 30+ economic indicators for 127 countries & 33 commodities.
Date: January 25, 2017
TagsTunisia oil prices Russia Euro Area MENA Unemployment rate Housing Market United Kingdom Trade Latin America USA Cryptocurrency UK Canada Germany China Infographic France Asia Ukraine Iran Sub-Saharan Africa Italy Emerging Markets Gold Major Economies Africa IMF Japan Greece Inflation Bitcoin European Union Banking Sector Spain Brazil Oil Commodities Forex Turkey Argentina TPP Economic Growth (GDP) United States Exchange Rate Company News Nordic Economies Vietnam India G7 Healthcare Australia Precious Metals Commodities Brexit Consensus Forecast Energy Commodities South Africa Base Metals Commodities Eastern Europe precious metals OPEC Agricultural Commodities Venezuela Colombia Portugal Mexico Investment
In FY 2018 economic growth in India should accelerate thanks to fading disruptions from the demonetization of Novem… https://t.co/4C9xYnZLQf
2 hours ago
Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate in 2019. Get more details: https://t.co/J6UhL4HDEf
5 hours ago
Despite mounting economic headwinds, the Chinese economy is expected to comfortably meet this year’s growth target… https://t.co/uePHyDNwaK
7 hours ago
7 hours ago
Looking ahead, growth should be robust across ASEAN. Get the latest 2018 and 2019 growth forecasts for major player… https://t.co/A9A2jYONnH
8 hours ago
- Which ASEAN countries are most exposed in the event of a U.S.-China trade war?
- 75 Top Economics Influencers to Follow
- Emerging Markets Economic Outlook 2018 and 2019
- The Faces Behind Latin America’s Key Institutions
- 2019 Economic Outlook for the Top Oil Producing Countries
- Is your cup of coffee about to get more expensive going in to 2019?
- The Economic Implications of an Aging Global Population
- Can the Wisdom of the Crowds predict the results of the 2018 World Cup?
- Railway Mania: The Largest Speculative Bubble You’ve Never Heard Of
- From Riches to Rags: Have Cryptocurrencies Crashed for Good?
- Investment looks to Latin America, but forecasts are not encouraging
- Turkey: Erdogan has cemented his grip on power - now what about the economy?
- How can Latin America’s business environment benefit from technological change?
- Mexico: A look at the past, present and future as elections yield AMLO victory
- Italy’s New Populist Government and the Eurozone: Prelude to a Crisis?
- Latin America moves toward increased integration as U.S. protectionism grows
- How can Latin America increase productivity without affecting the quality of employment?
- How will Saudi Arabia's economy benefit from lifting the women's driving ban?
- Which countries are the most prepared for the upcoming digital revolution?
- India Under Pressure from the U.S. on Trade Policy
- The Story of Steel
- Latin America is the World Leader in eCommerce Growth Despite Serious Challenges
- What the TPP means for trade in Latin America
- Elections in Russia: Analysis and Implications
- Nearly a Third of Latin Americans Have No Right to a Pension
- A Look at Healthcare Models Around the World
- The Poorest Countries in the World
- The Economic Effects of Trade Protectionism
- Newly-elected Chilean President Sebastian Piñera faces a myriad of challenges - economic and otherwise
- Regional Disparity: The Dark Side of Inequality in Latin America
- Coal: The story of the world's most abundant fossil fuel
- Venezuela's Electoral Conundrum
- Gold: The Most Precious of Metals (Part 3)
- Trump's 1st Year: 95 Analysts Surveyed on U.S. Economy
- The Latest on China and What's in Store for 2018
- An in-depth look at the Eurozone’s booming economy and the challenges that lurk in the shadows
- Increasing poverty in Latin America takes a breather thanks to improving economic dynamics
- What will be the most miserable economies in 2018?
- The World's Top 10 Largest Economies
- Is Spain doing enough to address its high youth unemployment rate?
- Has Latin America gone far enough in reducing barriers to international trade?
- Commodities Outlook: Oil, Natural Gas, Coal, Lead & Tin
- 21 experts tell us what the future looks like for cryptocurrencies and blockchain
- Turkish lira plummets to all-time low on Erdogan’s monetary feud and tense U.S.-Turkey relations
- Copper: The first metal mastered by man
- The Mercosur-EU Free Trade Agreement: Obstacles & Opportunities
- Nigerian Economy Still Treading Water Thanks to Oil Sector
- Elections in Chile: What the results could mean for the economy
- QE’s Untold Story: A Chart That Fed Correspondents Need To Investigate
- Holland’s fragile one-seat majority government targets economic growth at the expense of fiscal sustainability
- South Africa: Economy at a tipping point?
- Latin American Commodities: What’s behind the increase in demand and prices?
- Is the UK really "shackled to a corpse"?
- Spain-Catalonia: 7 economic experts weigh in on how the situation will affect the outlook
- How well is Spain's labor market doing since the crisis?
- Which countries will have the highest and lowest inflation in 2017?
- How vulnerable is Latin America to economic crises today?
- Iron ore facts and common questions answered
- The bulging economic costs of obesity
- How much investment is needed to salvage Latin America’s crumbling infrastructure?
- A Look at the Potential Impact of Brexit on the Dutch Economy
- Emerging Markets Are Kicking Into Higher Gear In 2017
- Why is foreign direct investment in Latin America falling again?
- Are Central Banks Nationalising the Economy?
- Bounty or burden? The impact of refugees on European economies is far from clear
- What’s the future of U.S.-Latin America trade relations?
- Taxes or cutbacks? Latin America's challenge of sustaining spending without causing debt to skyrocket
- Are uranium prices making a comeback?
- Taxing the Economy: Achieving a Delicate Balance
- How will Latin America’s upcoming lengthy election cycle affect the reform agenda and credit ratings?
- How will emerging market economies perform in 2017?
- Chilean Economy in Focus: Interview with Senior Economist of the Chamber of Commerce of Santiago
- CEOs Rank Top Economies for Growth Opportunities
- The Mobile Ecosystem & Latin America's Economy
- Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy: Interview with Tim Cooper from BMI Research
- How will the Fed reduce its balance sheet & and how will the ECB end QE? - 19 economic experts weigh in
- Thoughts on "unwinding" QE from Frances Coppola
- The Fed and ECB at a crossroads: Unwinding QE
- Spain: The economy that continues to silence the critics
- Latin America: The Most Unequal Region in the World
- The History of OPEC: Has it been a Success?
- FocusEconomics Announces 2017 Analyst Forecast Awards Winners
- Latin America’s rising unemployment bucks nearly decade long trend
- Escape from the Central Bank Trap by Daniel Lacalle
- China's economic rebalancing act: What to look out for in 2017
- Driving Growth in Latin America: Challenges & Priorities
- Is the Global Economy Rebalancing?
- Commodity exporters face challenging times
- Recent Global Events Facilitate Mercosur-Pacific Alliance
- 23 economic experts weigh in: Why is productivity growth so low?
- Mexico's outlook as Trump nears 100-day mark
- Interview with Oxford Economics Senior Economist on implications of the possible outcomes of the French Presidential Election
- The anxiety of the small saver in a world of negative interest rates
- Brexit negotiations. Between Uncertainty and Urgency
- An Economic History of the EU from El Blog Salmón
- Baby Boomin': Implications of high population growth in Latin America
- Survey of International Economists Predicts a Le Pen Defeat in French Elections, Says Macron has Best Economic Plan
- Spain in a global context: developed economy with some challenges
- How much is crime costing Latin America?
- Predictions & Estimates from Economist Daniel Lacalle
- What economy will the new Dutch government inherit?
- “The data is not a true reflection of reality in India” Interview with Société Générale India Economist
- What are the prospects for Emerging Economies in 2017?
- What to expect in Asia for 2017
- Top Economics & Finance Blogs of 2017
- Latam to Resume Moderate Growth in 2017 but Important Risks Plague Outlook
- 4 Key European Elections That Will Impact the Economy in 2017
- How are security concerns and political chaos affecting Turkey’s economy?
- Global growth to edge up in 2017
- Set to breach targets again? Debt and deficit outlooks for Southern European Eurozone countries in 2016 & 2017
- What does Donald Trump mean for the U.S. economy?
- How will emerging markets perform in 2017?
- The economic impact of a break in U.S.-Philippines ties
- Trump election: Base metals surge due to infrastructure plan
- 5 updates on the Venezuelan economic crisis
- Canada: When your neighbor’s house is on fire…
- Short-term pain before long-term gain? A look at French labor reform and economic growth
- Asia: Unremarkable growth & unfulfilled promises?
- How India's latest monsoon is affecting the economy
- Russian economy update in wake of OPEC deal announcement
- Innovation in Latin America: Potential Goes Untapped Due to Weak Economic Conditions
- The Wisdom of the Crowds and the Consensus Forecast
- Can the peso predict the U.S. election results?
- There's no end in sight to the Venezuela crisis
- A Look at the European Union Political Calendar
- Survey of international economists shows uncertainty surrounding elections damaging U.S. growth prospects
- FocusEconomics partners with leading online statistics provider Statista
- China: Recent postive economic data may be papering over the cracks
- Sub-Saharan Africa's 2016 & 2017 growth rates
- The Italian Dilemma: Weak banks pose risk to already faltering domestic demand
- How much money do migrants from Latin America send home?
- The U.S.' (Not So) Mysterious Case of the Missing Men
- What to expect from the G20 economies by 2020
- The Pain in Spain: Robust GDP growth cannot mask the persistent structural deficit